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[lastpost] => 2681836 交易所里面的U收的永远都是要比卖的贵 1728119622 loveyo
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随着2024年接近尾声,比特币投资者正热切地关注着今年最后一个季度,传统上以积极的价格走势而闻名。鉴于许多人猜测看涨反弹可能即将到来,让我们分解历史数据,分析趋势,并权衡比特币价格在今年年底前的走势。
7 B) W" M& f y# g纵观过去十年的月度回报热图,第四季度比特币经常取得令人印象深刻的收益。数据显示,BTC通常在年底表现强劲,2023年连续三个月的绿色月份就是明证。然而,并非每年都遵循这一趋势,2021年和2022年的情况不太乐观,比特币在年底的走势更为悲观。然而,从2020年和2015年到2017年,价格出现了巨大的飙升,突显出第四季度牛市结束的潜力。基于历史数据分析2024年第四季度的潜在结果
- ^8 d$ A& T$ K为了更好地了解2024年第四季度的潜在结果,我们可以将之前的第四季度业绩与当前的价格走势进行比较。这可以让我们了解如果历史模式继续下去,比特币可能会如何表现。潜在结果的范围很广,从大幅上涨到小幅下跌,甚至是横向价格变动。投影线采用彩虹色编码,从2023年的红色到2015年的淡紫色。例如,在2017年(紫色线),比特币经历了大幅上涨,这表明在乐观的情况下,到2024年底,比特币的价格可能会高达24万美元。4 F% `, N4 S9 ~' U3 j* {4 J
然而,更保守的估计也是可能的。在更温和的第四季度,比特币的价格可能在93000美元至110000美元之间,而在看跌的情况下,价格可能会跌至34000美元,如2018年所见(蓝线)。
7 Q/ f1 g/ Q7 Z4 H/ Z9 B基于这些数据的中位数结果似乎在85000美元左右。尽管这是基于这些预测的年末价格,但2021年(黄线)等年份的价格在年底出现显著回落之前大幅上涨。7 c N. |+ k/ t( D
中位数结果有可能吗?
l. i" p2 l) `7 B$ ~5 T [虽然大约三个月后的85000美元似乎很乐观,但我们只需回顾今年2月,就会看到BTC在一个月内增长了43.63%。我们还可以参考黄金比率乘数等指标,这些指标显示,黄金比率乘数在1.6倍的累积高点附近是一个潜在的目标。24万美元有可能吗?
$ T* }9 v) ^( Q8 g& P) W3 j比特币能否实现如此高的价值将取决于各种因素。需求的增加加上供应的有限可能会推动比特币创下历史新高。此外,比特币ETF、机构投资或重大地缘ZZ事件等发展可能会进一步提振需求。我们在这个周期中也看到了与前两个周期类似的模式,在冷静期之前出现了第一波大规模市场流入;可能在不久的将来引发第二次反弹。这可能过于雄心勃勃,自2017年以来,比特币的市值已经大幅增长,我们需要数百亿美元的资金涌入市场。但比特币就是比特币,在这个领域没有什么是不可能的!% ^0 Q7 y5 H V3 r/ }
结论: _0 e: H* n& r- T4 i
最终,尽管历史数据表明对第四季度持乐观态度,但预测比特币的未来总是投机性的。在所有这些预测中,有三分之一导致了价格的横向波动,其中一个预测将出现大规模下跌。与往常一样,投资者保持公正并对比特币数据和价格走势做出反应,而不是预测,这一点很重要。8 q6 T f8 H2 u' a+ _
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
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总在线: 12144 小时
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