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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法：凯利注码法（凯利缆）（转载）
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我，如何控制震荡？要准备多少资金？要下多大的注？要多久能回报？
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( F0 Z6 L: O. u) p, l2 h# a! H6 k会问我这些问题，表示功力不到家！只会算EV确不会管理资金，只知其然却不知其所以然。5 H% n0 G7 Q' ~4 s% e7 z% Q0 m
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其实优势玩家的资金管理，不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学！！！
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首先，我问一个很简单的问题，有什么注码法，能让你就算一直输，也永远不会破产？- k: s, i% N# N9 I# { F# p
. I" Y- D9 D% n) v% W( [请思考1分钟，再来看下面的答案。
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' S* N/ u" j+ R: Y' Y# Q: r答案就是用比例下注，就永远不会破产！* x: {( z" D. o" |( O/ v' D
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例如：我每次都下我总资金的10%，如果输了，我就下剩下的90%的10%，那么不管我输多少次，我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%，永远都还会剩下钱。5 `6 D+ k! Z3 j) E8 c
$ Z) C& w( V x- P% H) v; O现在的问题就是，到底要下总资本的百分之几最好？
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: q1 d. S0 B) @) n4 |) O, B我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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6 N1 B+ Q6 n3 Z9 |/ j- e, q- ^玩2手，输一次赢一次，我用10%下注，不管先输（剩下90%，再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%）再赢（90%+9%），还是先赢（剩下110%，再下110%的10%=11%）再输（110%-11%）,都是剩下99%，公式是（1+10%）*（1-10%）=99% 损失了1%的本金！
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玩200手，输100次赢100次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^100 * (1-10%）^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金！玩越多手，输的越多。- |* t; k* I2 s- v
$ P0 M9 S2 `( J% E. F这个实验说明，使用永远不会破产的注码，虽然永远也输不完，但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏，也会一直越输越多。% r; w. s& @2 Z+ a' m0 s# x* J _
# F9 @# K" |/ C9 f, c6 r" j; Q接下来，大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏，赢的会比输的多，+1%的游戏，就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思，那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打，会不会赚钱呢？
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玩200手，输99次赢101次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^101 * (1-10%）^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点，但是依然不会赢。% e C, I4 d# H3 h
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再来看看如果下5%，（1+5%）^101 * (1-5%）^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢？（1+1%）^101 * (1-1%）^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。$ U% K( A4 Y2 K8 H% `
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但是这真的是最好的吗？我帮大家节省时间，我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果，用表格的形式拉出来。4 O9 N6 }( ^) R) D; y
2 p, f! `* b2 R9 u! D) {% ^/ ~下注比例 本金结果, N( u# f, D9 p9 [2 V
+ i7 a3 {' d7 J9 @) \; V& D0.1% 1.001902/ a+ M+ J5 X( @6 w" r
- g! v' O6 f3 \/ o/ N4 G) ~# J2 S0 j0.2% 1.0036069 j+ l# R! q q# T; R3 q
4 f5 a4 p+ L2 {1 Z
0.3% 1.005113
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! s5 \5 u0 |/ _& c1 e8 I0.4% 1.006421
Q7 [, C% |# F+ R
0 v1 `; j2 ?. z6 d) o# w0.5% 1.0075289 R) z2 q) A' S! Q2 t
% `; I$ ?9 q9 p/ _2 _( E
0.6% 1.008435; p* i! Q5 h9 p
4 a3 l. U2 X- M0.7% 1.009142
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0.8% 1.009646
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0.9% 1.009949
0 p5 R8 q7 I0 e0 x( c7 l, x: r1 \, C
1.0% 1.010058 s1 C+ \4 |/ i9 x3 z
) l* _( s9 l* y! U1 z
1.1% 1.009949( q' u9 n: g: N" d" U
% A) O/ w3 D& V: Z/ G
1.2% 1.009646
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1.3% 1.0091422 P& U `0 Y3 T$ e6 [+ `& @! t
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1.4% 1.008435
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8 n+ ]) Y3 _0 F `5 V1.5% 1.007528# K1 Y2 v. p# i$ T3 O
4 x/ \& A8 F- N' d; Y& }
1.6% 1.006427 t7 S% [3 x) y
. j2 C# L) E2 ^: U, V1 ^
1.7% 1.005112: o- f4 t. l$ x6 ^6 b% M+ [5 T, Q
3 l3 z7 ~" E$ p- j5 w/ M; w4 `
1.8% 1.0036058 }3 t# Y8 I( t [" f. c
5 m) m+ A$ M# v6 w8 P5 o2 @* ^
1.9% 1.00192 `& e0 f( ~- x9 n7 E4 y
8 f/ n) P9 A* m7 c& N% X3 i5 ]2.0% 0.999997" H c1 q, o1 P7 W' i0 j" v
% K1 v i' u8 i; c- [1 B+ z) N2.1% 0.997899
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! \% Q0 \( v' j! _6 t2.2% 0.995605! m( G; s, g1 g$ R" r' q4 Q
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2.3% 0.993118
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2.4% 0.990439
9 |. Y) c! }2 I8 v/ {1 s" J. X# z7 R3 |9 c9 T: a* ^
2.5% 0.987569
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V; W6 h- a+ ~& m& p( t3 B2.6% 0.98451( i* u- V; q/ l. U/ M6 \4 K
( o9 ? Z9 G4 D$ w" e0 K2.7% 0.9812646 d) b. u7 k8 R/ w& s0 g1 x
& o3 } Q0 @- A# K9 B$ q& Z2.8% 0.977833
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% Z0 p0 i2 i g' {$ Z5 ^, E9 t) c2.9% 0.974219& U) l7 K, K9 ]6 N2 {( H, R
7 U' B% W! m: f3.0% 0.9704243 i9 F( M: l6 h+ J
. j) R/ a6 q8 `* r/ d) x5 }从上表可以得到一些结论：
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3 v* v9 y" \' A- Z6 C1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，下注在0%以上2%以下，才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，注码在1%的时候，得到的获利是最高的，下的越小赚的越少，下的越大也赚的越少！# x8 z0 | w+ r
: }& \+ g8 j9 M( D& g/ |3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金，严格按照比例下注，过多过少只要不够准确，都会降低收益，名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈" _. z* N! N' J) c* A
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凯利这个人，其实只是按照这个原理去推演，发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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& b# a! B) B& R. }9 x然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件，其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同，其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的，但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表，那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上，希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。* |- D! B9 [1 A6 x! _9 T, Z# ~
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