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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
0 ]) f7 h0 L5 Y( }/ S, O& t) i% T# k% w) _0 N
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!' n' d. l: ~/ k) O6 A& a( l
# D' x0 {7 D* Z& U M7 M" @$ c
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
5 |, l l( q: p
4 ~2 t- G% M" k3 V1 F: I1 G' F1 ^请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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$ i6 O. |0 @! d/ l+ C! Y4 e2 v0 a答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
4 y/ S g% P# E9 a. U0 ~& L& d* H3 I6 v/ g6 R) n/ e( ?0 ?
例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。0 [; R! a6 H0 t5 q
4 L# i8 O c! l$ o3 P/ h9 w现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
6 K$ a! l; @" H: e) V7 F0 A" `+ v+ `1 ?# v' [7 C$ [
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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- S8 d; C; Z& G$ t玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!( K Y- ]. n2 }- Q2 c% p/ t
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。3 @5 J' y, ?; E, ?3 [( n+ }! U0 ]
5 k9 N2 @( O& L) j/ z6 T4 P这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。5 f3 X* V k5 [. P* v# C8 }+ M
8 X: D9 l* G: b. Z. K( ~接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?& J! }/ q+ x" [
9 ^6 ^8 ^) n% I) Y/ R8 v/ b) K玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。. u1 Y' J$ j# m! M; N" k/ d
6 {9 v" y' e/ I: x& f0 p再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。 K! a n- X; M* O7 g
& r" U S5 T* ~如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。0 q8 y/ \4 ?' i
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。1 i- e% R- ]' E, @
; `% @. {" @0 j/ D @下注比例 本金结果2 z. [- f2 I, o+ Z3 _5 V8 s9 i: `
9 x4 ]3 f/ o1 i H6 q
0.1% 1.001902
" ^/ J9 a" r" b. M0 e1 I( l6 S! Q2 {" q( i, C
0.2% 1.003606; J. g+ i0 U( y$ g; }) U* Q0 v# ~* Y
! F/ Z: E7 x; Y& H' `
0.3% 1.005113
4 h% F! m8 h6 J
3 K: e( q; j- o6 a& ~ o1 s0 ?( A5 L0.4% 1.006421; ~9 A; c, t: n3 i; |
# o u* X) c0 J' a. v- d c, H0.5% 1.007528
4 g- Q+ x* w9 V2 Y( V9 m7 {5 d$ \6 j: O
0.6% 1.0084355 r8 t8 O0 }" i% a+ t1 f: d1 Z
2 i A9 a( N6 X% q7 u
0.7% 1.009142% I0 o8 t& E" Q
2 C, ^$ @1 e8 y- w0 F* R7 |0.8% 1.009646
; J& X: y) W! {* n/ s
9 m" n3 v n9 O0.9% 1.009949
! t% i( D3 a$ v
9 M+ { X2 {1 q1 |) r4 y- R3 L5 r+ Y1.0% 1.01005
2 x! p2 H* c6 U" u; e+ {9 U' Q+ n8 [" y" a
1.1% 1.0099499 X6 L2 s7 g6 @/ b6 |+ O( a" w0 q
6 Q* I$ K% D0 {( Y' p! L
1.2% 1.009646. b1 |$ \; K( R. i. l7 E" M
6 o% Q6 p; h# k( _" ~
1.3% 1.009142. g8 a% R( p0 }7 l i; }. T; l9 ~
0 ], ]; d6 q+ s2 y2 v/ g- S- a. c
1.4% 1.008435
3 `3 [- s+ {1 q G# l
8 D* S- j! X8 W& }$ q1.5% 1.007528
' m/ f# T* L% M! _; I8 G
1 k" l; p6 I& b2 y* _; ~8 U' W1.6% 1.00642( ]+ D# k5 ~$ D
( h9 }8 D- ]+ T7 |$ u( k" _1.7% 1.005112# M) F: B' I% ?3 X2 O. i
9 L0 `4 U. i1 X# g1.8% 1.0036055 f7 Q. g, d1 B+ I, y
! I; g( _) N+ q- J8 c8 |8 ?
1.9% 1.0019( H. m4 Y6 \* g; _" m
: g' d/ S: @& M* c5 X2.0% 0.999997) y0 v9 U2 O+ q$ G/ z2 ~2 h
% `! s" S: H0 X, X* @
2.1% 0.997899! \5 \ J; M- w8 E" F& ?% Q4 g
, E4 V% Y" ~, n
2.2% 0.995605
/ s5 T0 K# ]. Q( H( d& B- Z
; A9 u; n- Z; j+ N( N4 S4 M2.3% 0.993118
$ e9 [/ `% _( B( U) h! B" E3 y0 U7 |
* z1 m( J/ o* d* Y' ~/ g" _+ O* i" S2.4% 0.990439+ @# _- Z5 I3 t7 b: P0 O
8 a7 |, O& F8 ]- Y: V1 J* h
2.5% 0.987569
6 w0 ]" B( B2 }- R4 S! \; m' ^ g+ x9 C$ X: ]2 `
2.6% 0.984516 ]$ a& n: O( }9 I% P
1 l$ R9 a3 |5 H3 s1 H2.7% 0.981264
_* _5 |1 o- r: X! f
5 ?2 X. J; L D2 p2.8% 0.977833
0 n8 v. x3 N7 v" P+ @( h& o* ^/ m) [9 o! ~8 o% r
2.9% 0.974219' F+ C# h; Z6 j2 r
. m, n' S3 Y& f0 w2 T' |3.0% 0.970424
+ K ~* H$ G/ G7 _3 l' Z8 a7 u3 F' w/ j+ V# B; S9 c+ Z
从上表可以得到一些结论:
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7 o9 N5 C5 A3 y G- f e1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!* g/ K j _& O% A; \4 z! I
+ r" G: r* T) G/ c3 g' y0 s3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈+ A3 U& d- V( U O. {# A
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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/ q4 C9 i+ U; L) r4 }, i2 A7 I然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。 w" ^7 z. D8 n K. K2 ~
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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