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[打法交流]
玩双色球防骗技巧----“一码中蓝”,搁你头上你晕不晕?(转)
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玩双色球防骗技巧----“一码中蓝”,搁你头上你晕不晕?嘀嘀嘀”,短信来了。
9 j/ s$ a x) U! p打开一看:“彩票公司回报彩民,向您透露本期双色球蓝号:15。请勿外传,机会只此一次,请善加把握。”
# j! y8 j$ S3 s: T. d% z2 X& H你嗤之以鼻:“切,哪来的骗子!”
% h" J/ @. @8 V一开奖,你傻眼了:蓝球15。
1 G+ Y Z6 G* F大腿拍烂了也来不及了!我怎么就没相信人家呢!彩票公司直接告诉我号码了我咋就没信呢!早知道我买它十万注蓝球15哇!
3 y- w4 _. h" x5 V0 T还说人家是骗子,人家开奖之前告诉我号码,就一个15,一开就中了,人家哪里骗我了!
/ `* a4 e+ \) b! b" F& J, ]9 M% z于是,你疯了一般后悔、痛恨自己错失良机。- j3 ?2 s: y) P" H0 H% a& u- {7 h
再过几分钟,你的想法发生了变化,刚才的悔恨已经变成了希望----要是它再给我发一次该多好!1 t2 H/ [, v. M+ j% P' k
这时电话打过来了:“恭喜您中奖,蓝球15您打了多少倍?”3 y! B% o2 f/ W; g
你捶胸顿足,求对方再告诉你下期的蓝号。& M! T# q0 f) i7 v5 b% y
对方犹豫不决,你主动提出给人家好处。" M, y8 Q, p2 q' O' I
于是,用一万块钱买了下期的蓝号。/ {6 d3 t6 `) d$ ]
他告诉你10号。( f; l3 z" C" i. E+ U! `
接下来呢……………… S+ F2 {$ M" T1 T& m( M: I& |* e
………………………………; J6 D5 U: w" J2 a5 X9 @- K- s
……………………………………
' y3 J& W4 }, W# w w你倾家荡产买的蓝球10,全折了。
/ ]/ P7 l7 }6 G: h: @! Q明明它就是骗子嘛!# Y2 N# c: x6 k! [3 _
可是,他那个蓝球15是怎么准的呢?8 @: ~0 X% @! O* ]* Z5 q
这就是幸存者偏差。你看它只看到一个点,而他面对的却是16万个随机目标。
: p' H, y( X# p) T8 i+ S# R他给这16万个电话号码发短信,第一万个人它告诉蓝球1;第二万个人它告诉蓝球2;第三万个人它告诉蓝球3……你是第十五万个人中的一员,他告诉你15。
0 C3 S. {) a0 u0 W) ]% h! t1 o8 v一开奖,必定有一万个人会发现自己收到的“唯一的蓝号”中奖了。
, i% P3 L. q9 Z" S这一万个人中可能有二百个恰好是彩民。
0 v$ G" r" I; o! t/ N/ z4 Y这二百个彩民当中肯定可以涌现出一两个像你一样“头脑灵活”的人。7 @& i; L r' ~5 L( J
于是,你幸运地成为“一码中蓝”的上钩者。8 C$ c% s, b K. \, |9 L1 T0 ]
3 p7 O' ]* G9 J |
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