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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人1 w J) M3 U/ ~
7 b- l- L0 I" M4 t: k" g7 M
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，6 ~* x5 j: Q) l; t- I6 l' c
0 n9 t! B! ]' O. B# v
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
% x1 R1 r; z7 ]( i
" l7 D0 l. _. p5 r的千禧一代。
/ y' K h: u2 B0 c0 e7 U从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB8 M8 Y) } c0 F5 d7 y. _$ z' N. z' t
% M8 K2 \5 X! a" y
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
. V2 ~; o; u3 m0 [; p) Z8 `' j& K/ W" T I% b& A2 r
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
% ~2 g6 ~5 q- t2 q$ }
/ o# D$ M$ c5 T& ?& o密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
' C5 ~ m$ n% ?( U! D* E3 R% ]5 [ L: U) z# G$ m3 I! o8 D
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
! R- V5 b& R5 a' p* a$ f* w( A+ B! B) {6 X
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》2 l( @3 C p: r# F
% o8 q! q( P. Q( G& A$ B2 _; n/ D报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
- C9 p, U5 x+ y: o! x/ x. Z s* [/ B4 b) b7 j2 r2 a# \% Y
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
# K' g, K2 F0 G" r: _& p3 I4 H
4 k, x* o8 y A& R+ PETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。7 d( H q1 c2 O$ E; t
`3 @4 Z2 O6 S R* P据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降" f3 p- ?& C1 `# W5 L8 r+ D% d/ M
" q- L" p% O* A9 \8 m* H6 y2 n/ A
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
& R: E" _* _* j X3 T; N
8 {" q, c7 F Q/ |与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密3 o; O9 N9 B7 v, [7 V+ ~2 I) z3 s+ b
( }- Q4 T* U5 E( c4 t% C世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
f5 ?3 X$ _" z6 K$ F7 F% f8 z
$ F6 r. p' P1 h- q T8 n传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
1 {. ^2 @, @ z
9 ~& L9 }: v- B* U* I到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一; _4 `9 G. ~/ [7 k, B7 u1 X+ v X7 [
' S& {5 @: h4 v v- \
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成5 B8 C& Y( T0 l) j0 p( {
- ^4 u0 M+ ~6 D本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体3 a- }) L2 o% c* ?- }1 ?
8 x5 n3 F9 u6 Q" g
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
" P f6 p/ \- R% w) D
: N+ S- v* s$ |6 B币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致- T+ u7 A+ L& B7 @
! [* j q. ?! h, A6 w0 k未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
2 z% a; O# s7 l" Y D x; U N! G' X' f/ B) q
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。: M+ \# V/ k4 V; d* U
# `% G; q5 H4 M5 _
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