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[lastpost] => 2690391 疯了，彻底疯了，比特币8万多了~ 1731357341 爬格子的瘦书生
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企業一窩蜂投入區塊鏈也是這種焦慮心態的表現。由於區塊鏈被不少專家抬舉，企業擔心如果自己不搞，但競爭對手在搞的話，幾年後會否變成無法彌補的創新差距？於是有理沒理都先搶進去，是否正確、是否合用都是其次，最重要是有在做。 企業「創新」是必須，在過去十年的互聯網科技時代實在看到太多案例，是傳統企業轉身太慢而導致沒落，不過亦有案例是把創新放在錯的方向而導致資源浪費，結果反而加速了自己的沒落。 猶幸區塊鏈技術研發不是那種極度燒錢的技術研發，只需不斷實驗嘗試各種概念應用，不至於會把錢燒光，但這也導致大量概念應用出現，好聽是百花齊放不斷試錯，但如果是用公共區塊鏈來做的話卻會搶走了其他應用的資源，是對是錯其實很難分。 這種焦慮症在加密貨幣投資裡也有出現，還有一個詞語專門形容人們因擔心錯失什麼而產生的恐懼，叫做「錯失恐懼症 FOMO」（Fear of Missing Out）。 一直都說區塊鏈和加密貨幣很接近信仰，它火不火實際不是來自其根底，而是大家信不信。人們擔心自己不買，會否錯過了千載難逢的機會，於是不管有懂沒懂都搶買，加上本身可能也有一些外在升值因素，於是去年才會發生比特幣一年間炒上二萬美元的情況。 情況是否很像香港樓價？很多人羨慕成功在樓價大升前上車的人，即使心知肚明現在樓價已不正常，但依然有人會上車，正是另一種焦慮症的呈現。但勉強上車的安心感會否導致日後的災難？不管是買樓、買比特幣還是企業投資區塊鏈技術，都應該謹慎考慮。 加密貨幣炒賣泡沫化，但這種鬱金香熱已漫延到菊花和茶葉等其他植物。香港有家賣茶葉的公司去年就改名叫「區塊鏈集團」，其實也是想利用股民對區塊鏈技術的一知半解和 FOMO 心態，借人家的熱潮來炒作股價。 不過幾乎所有同類的革命性技術，或者說是很多人期待的技術，都同樣經歷過這種被過度炒作再跌落谷底的命運，.com 年代人人炒互聯網概念，但今天 Google、Facebook、Amazon 等都是市值最大的公司，因此有價值的東西不會因為這種起落而失去價值。 研究機構 Gartner 將這稱之為一條炒作週期曲線（Hype Cycle），又或者稱作技術成熟度曲線。簡單而言就是會經歷五個階段：技術萌芽、被大量追捧炒作、期待落空導致泡沫爆破跌入谷底、緩慢重新起步、成功成為成熟科技。 這種周期往往需時十年以上，但隨著創新科技淘汰傳統企業的速度不斷提高，企業已等不及技術回到低谷後才投入發展，這不僅反映在區塊鏈技術，其實在人工智能、大數據等技術也同樣存在。可以預見在未來這種焦慮症會繼續存在，並且不只困擾傳統企業，還困擾曾經靠創新而創出一片天，但正愁於被後浪推逼的新創公司。
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