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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，
& d# Y8 a7 z! b. J0 ^% p' {( e开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。# A: |+ \# m" d$ @ \% t% }
比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来
$ B7 G; K* U7 D& I# o8 s对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」2 y6 j# C: {! Y* x8 _* v
前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克
/ `& b& ~2 Y; U4 Q' M; O5 r指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。
$ Q1 F6 Z; P4 }时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。
4 }8 K9 o; T3 i* y) E6 E历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将
3 M) s; A" B0 N- c9 u结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。
, b" g. N0 d$ U" I. w( v7 h1 f1 x4 Z# {SEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动
! e( g+ G. V) [% J8 J8 ]同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、) F* f' U# L% V- |+ X- c0 o# a
贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。' S. P5 z: u: Q9 n
但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推4 h5 R9 p1 G/ q3 s2 g) U
迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，
1 q$ H6 \$ ^/ l. a我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。
; [+ Y$ V0 n7 K$ E* I" lK33看好2024年加密货币市场
3 R; t8 P* p8 W% W; v此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风; h$ f/ v: f! G5 j
险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难/ c0 x6 p& H0 i. Q" P* W, |/ x
提前预测。/ P) o- Q2 y/ j1 Y" i
但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币
2 F0 `* a, e( E, r9 ^* q5 ^( O现货ETF的走向如何。) g9 p2 Y# a" r) n9 L
4 _! P! Y6 ]3 o8 Z) C1 _
; X1 U$ q1 Y& e' I |
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