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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。
: M. \ h0 w8 B1 E. ]我们先引入下列符号:
, N5 o$ c! z8 R( T; P9 SPn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
/ a e, N& [+ o5 M即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。: Z1 K) F5 w( s. k V* [5 I
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。+ f3 G3 v/ f6 z$ O0 j: {( f, g
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。$ N e" K; o: G0 p5 u; x$ v% ?3 a$ i
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。6 S4 \! o/ E# S; l
# B) h7 p9 N4 ?9 @* q在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。
' J6 |6 T0 R4 i2 j1 `' Z2 \8 G在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:
5 [% v. z( ^3 f; c; B: T+ V5 e1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
) u* E9 I Z9 s' K- m" ]- d2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。0 b: d3 s) ]5 d9 M. c
3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。& N( j2 ]$ _9 e. E# C
* D! J% X9 J. \+ o; i那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:
2 X/ m: t. ` K$ o' YD1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
- H. q: \$ N* yD2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
* l0 g- B# s* r& d( O# Y/ bD3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
8 i5 k) W% L3 t0 d% Z/ l2 b. [' G1 ~) e, f( W4 _
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:: I/ }7 U" Q. ~. h5 Z, ]! m, o u
X1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。( ?8 M# v, _8 h/ u
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。
! ~% i( g ]6 ]" GX3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
! h: y4 [# t9 ]* y1 ]
- X# j1 u% X0 ]+ j4 F# Q0 W下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。; |+ \) c# b( D1 O" z
, H6 y( p+ J; @. k1 p! q% V
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5): Q6 w5 t Y- _& B' Z1 c" n0 b
r, e( Z, n1 `7 j8 T, c在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:$ s* c6 }' _1 |& [4 q
K=0 D0=0 6 o3 u# z+ G( j- `- k U4 ?9 \+ v$ R
K=1 D1=0
+ }# z0 w) K9 F$ ^/ T1 MK=2 D2=0
4 n( a- k" z$ B" V3 q# OK=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O ' A# I& `% @% D" p) M v
- S6 V# t: O9 r7 ~投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)4 v, ?/ v/ ?7 P
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。" P7 F% U( `( ~! f
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo
! N1 z% l& H' D9 E8 e( ^ O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=18 P1 q6 s+ F3 B) x. F' N/ B9 Y/ ^
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)2 F6 W' C3 }) y2 |+ ~9 F
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)6 a L) ^4 k7 \5 w5 p4 p
. \# t* j8 {& S9 A
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
9 E; r; O4 E t; q7 ?+ u( p# YK=0 X0=Bu*U
$ O. [. C2 N) aK=1 X1=Bu*U
& j8 p9 q2 M# S3 MK=2 X2=Bu*U
2 d' A1 I/ c1 MK=3;4;....x X3+=0% Y0 W3 K% N" E0 H! v, x3 ~
2 U/ _2 V7 L( M R2 l5 |( a
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U
/ u5 B' J) _1 r' i Y在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。7 F* l( |. `0 K; z- s
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu# m$ k- k7 V' I3 r
U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
5 y: C: V- U/ a. X8 g 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)
0 b( N: ?$ g1 L$ o& x f# Q
5 x) s2 x. ^4 E3 u2:大小球盘为3球(G=3). w0 e( i- p& x
# B- S& \2 \3 ^+ @ {在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:& N1 Q7 h3 g, r. X0 p$ [- w& W( P
K=0 D0=0 2 J+ S- H9 m1 h5 e: j/ _4 g+ M8 q7 f9 A, c
K=1 D1=0 2 i% S- X( Q% S8 J+ q
K=2 D2=0 Y5 Y) m- Y4 z1 r
K=3; D3= Bo
3 v7 H% ]# L5 f: c- [. Q1 Y5 iK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
& N- W- s7 w( `1 c( R* U- t9 z# j$ z" i7 `# W
投注大球的期望回报总数为:4 y" n$ }9 F2 o6 a
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
6 r, Q, W% D& W" ]0 |在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
`' x. B6 ?- v5 {/ E4 X4 n7 R- [ ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
+ D# E. ]& f4 a' n. d& V P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1' _8 [: b) D& J2 n- j/ d' h% [+ o
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
( U; @3 i- W u+ p6 q+ t1 R% ~3 a+ { 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)8 \) t9 P- Z6 K1 n0 H& O
0 A+ j, `: T' @; D( G* }在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
+ } Y0 ?. p% v9 VK=0 X0=Bu*U
: J t# o5 u0 ?0 _* YK=1 X1=Bu*U 0 N" B1 a, S% w B- h* w
K=2 X2=Bu*U
6 U( D, S6 a8 [8 E' k% q3 s: OK=3 X3= Bu
# G; c- q1 V, [2 J9 EJ=4;5;....x X4+=0
- N8 x" {- i0 g' ^
4 w6 F @* t, c7 K0 c投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
* r' E& v I6 |& N! G( G在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。# T, Q% ?, C" {/ | h
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu+ O4 K! M" T. s& _, E! ]
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1
, [# H: v' ?7 R8 ?3 }" j0 R 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)8 G; `' q1 A3 N' _
! n' G p9 Q( u7 G; S% K
3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)
* L: v/ |# g; t$ t' ` }6 S( I! [ ~& o1 V. t4 N& S
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:) J+ {7 u: ? |2 r6 P
K=0 D0=0
; b- `" z6 n+ |2 EK=1 D1=0
2 p+ M% Q8 C0 G3 ]K=2 D2=0) H- q8 i* e5 O# w4 T( ]6 G
K=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘); ~. M0 v# w& Q- O: d: |0 d- q
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O , C7 B Q3 ~6 Y9 c4 ?
6 }* ^$ s) L8 O) a
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
- h0 \* y4 H; r* C; j ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)+ c7 f/ y" ]. _- C5 ^; J
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
* h& N# z+ O0 M/ j9 Z9 c* M w, w在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
6 {, w; K+ \- ?6 ? ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
: n6 {! {) _: k) t, |/ C) R P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1# c9 M8 W$ W" C* T1 k ^. _
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/27 C7 p& F# d6 T& e% e/ ^% r
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
/ N( Q8 ~: o( [ ~5 j# ^* | T4 F- t1 [+ ^" f' e' H, }0 E
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
* H6 ~( m$ I9 W* G- m# eK=0 X0=Bu*U 8 z u# ^# c0 G6 C- A$ _+ G
K=1 X1=Bu*U
# i3 M" R {; b6 l2 ~6 eK=2 X2=Bu*U : n7 i' L, ^6 @# O) r, p( h
K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)# Q- \2 N7 a9 I4 m( e4 Y* t
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
1 v& j" Y' a7 I) f6 u
# s1 A0 S3 \ b$ n0 [- F投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2
& c& X4 G/ S5 p7 P* L* e在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
" n7 f! {% s# q. }+ ?8 C) c ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu% T# v9 z) c0 g& V$ ~
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=15 u: a { f2 j% v+ t
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)
1 `7 o6 W$ C2 G0 r. r) j, a% V% e7 L5 V7 Q% Z
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)) ?* b! e% [9 G8 r
% z4 v. m; i9 s1 S! z1 R9 E" [在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:2 B1 Q5 i; C# p$ R3 E) O; S$ ?
K=0 D0=0
( _8 l; u8 }/ v% C1 _K=1 D1=0 , ^1 ~" `5 W* {; q& V
K=2 D2=0
# w! o' C4 ]/ i! b2 y8 V9 t. OK=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)
7 Q W' m) z0 xK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
- E$ U$ _: Y+ A# l5 s; @" k4 b0 A. y
投注大球的期望回报总数为:, b8 m! @. `& g3 v% s: Y3 J
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
! N" C% o- B# E( a L4 o* y = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
0 f+ z9 E) s; Z# N: C在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
* \$ o, W4 _0 A4 g) u ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo9 K. s- g" D/ M0 d- W
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
3 n8 v: S3 y" p0 F; j$ o3 x O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/28 ]# a) ]. j" u2 t( q% L
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
0 Z1 i& Q0 [! q* ^" x7 U) w+ ` 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)9 Y* X. _1 z3 {+ n, j
/ H) I r+ o( R: o
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
3 A6 L7 ]) N4 ]" ZK=0 X0=Bu*U
' A0 R5 D/ G4 K% yK=1 X1=Bu*U
" j. W- z0 ?: l* jK=2 X2=Bu*U 9 @5 a# U8 M1 W7 d
K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)
# r4 s! q7 m/ T. ^J=4;5;....x X4+=0 E3 N# J6 T ^6 R; |. U7 D! @
5 p0 o- I1 y3 B投注小球的期望回报总数为:
3 _+ z4 U! `9 s7 o4 F ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
/ U' G9 ~( ?" F9 t# S' K0 m在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。0 U, y. D! o2 F* h+ C4 O
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu/ i5 y) t, W6 @1 ^" |' T
U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1" P8 y2 b8 k1 u
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)1 F+ a0 |" h. i) L5 J* r+ a
- R9 k0 O- X$ T( k' L& z
, ^. i- d* E9 G9 x* o
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.
/ \( O. i2 K; F大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
# b4 T) u! R+ X: w1 N
. u, w) @( ~ Y0 F" uP0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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