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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。+ P8 n0 k$ ~5 ?! f- @
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。' |" I, O4 x# ]# `! y f! ?
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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& ~8 G3 y4 M5 KAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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9 y; I5 v c N. s* ^“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”& e4 z- z& q5 b; a& \: B" |
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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9 ?) K9 N- ?6 E) d) gBTC 图表暗示了什么' H5 {7 X: P8 `
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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$ W" {& G0 B' b, X首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。1 N4 G! p7 c$ a$ Z$ c
" b1 B6 `6 T& l4 t6 m7 H" g8 f7 c从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。* E6 n s9 _& m6 |6 H) i w
; G p6 a2 g) \. H! {# s比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。' t. v3 j: e$ V) n+ c5 v
8 l7 f$ c) E# l. t: w当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。6 R9 ~( H! V/ n3 F- G
5 y7 ^# l7 d7 j7 {! M: a3 b最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。) I( c: k' U' B* {" s6 P9 L
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最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。3 f6 `. J- v' @4 S) V$ l) v% @7 h
, Y( ~8 c8 r6 p截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。* Y6 k, S) z. f3 ~
6 p& e5 G# `2 D4 C" s- R简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。0 J9 N) S1 F. l+ [! l0 ]
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