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[lastpost] => 2770291 波兰的加密法:投资者安全还是创新扼杀?(转) 1759376803 Lhrlhrgo
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势+ }% g) r D" c- ~& v
( E9 I3 ^4 \9 ]) d/ j+ o过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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2 D3 v* p# o# G# P4 M/ j: ~PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。6 l( B; X2 }# S& j+ T4 |& P* }! w
; E2 n- I% J# s6 zCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期4 l! v7 T4 y0 G/ o: u" E
|# L' m( Y5 t. M当前持仓成本:+ g; S. K) x/ W/ K, s0 ~7 @
6 l H, M7 }; ^+ j! j* J/ I8 `+ Y机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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% N9 Q& v. F8 j n微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。, n+ W! V$ t- Q5 c* r; m
: `: _* s. n$ U8 A. U5 L比特币价值回归:8 d! m9 T9 t1 Q% ^
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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1 w8 F' D; F# h1 J& z随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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9 F, E. T( V3 N, A加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。2 m# O# y6 |( ~: p5 y+ k6 e
3 N4 U0 z/ W, a, J" r/ {3. 市场热点与反弹情况8 A+ ~: R8 \0 Q, R& ^/ l
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ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。* U# U& ?. x" G) x- _
) s( {7 |, R) Q( eBTC:4 z6 N+ X" Q9 P" n
- O8 D+ b* {3 P: y$ y尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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! S& A/ u! {1 Z3 ]/ j如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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' c0 i3 q. J0 ]* }% r8 a2 wSOL与XRP:# \0 e' M5 G& o4 g5 b6 T
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。- q- p4 t+ H' j- a+ S
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其他热点项目:3 z* F, h' s0 f* \9 z3 q
; S+ w8 T n/ U) ~# B7 L: ]涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。4 I! ^& U" D" C4 O4 U
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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5 F& ~- W v; RAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。, i; Y5 K: t6 A/ r" }$ G9 i/ ?% ]
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。) k# Y, s) t$ d+ `" M8 z
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。) [: T4 J3 B8 r6 S3 u# x, S
# a. r+ F P: k9 }* K' M, a市场展望! T N3 r, [+ X& U" g; J
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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