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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，, a% s/ _; X, F ?. n) _
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富# J5 q- U" V! j6 D0 u' j7 N& z
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的千禧一代。
+ @" @- \. `% N从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
8 w- f. ?6 {: y d, }3 F
$ R) N$ D2 `7 x% K的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“* }$ T- Z6 ^- I0 K2 d1 L6 X( ]9 {
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时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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' Y4 h2 I8 J# r% r5 e% j0 l密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据# @( e* U$ e% f6 y1 n, o0 b
H4 b; C% u* }6 b# \1 \5 {6 k《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成 l! j7 k: j8 C/ Y
- a! i5 q8 C& K+ g8 H W; O" ?的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
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/ a+ T+ q' }- D' R( B: J报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；0 [' k' q) t+ i, B6 N3 f& j4 k
6 `5 i9 i! v3 a, d4 W8 ^. M$ b
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
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# D9 Y& j3 m# F( b8 L5 C5 bETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。& ~% c7 A( {% Y+ U% d" N# O
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据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降7 W- P) O0 A4 n1 l1 e! O
% ? p6 j8 g$ Q0 ^$ M' D" h* }息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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- S! t6 P7 ~+ B, F d与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密: q6 T u5 K+ P9 c+ `- Z
" _+ T0 r- ]: c0 F6 E. X' F' |世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富/ ]1 H* ?& z) C" a; q' G
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传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不, ^! ]& b8 A7 L |* E- F
. \- ]5 ^" s, `) w) h, ^( J
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成" Y1 p& }6 t8 J5 q) j; H5 K) A
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本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体9 s+ D2 ~- y( ], c3 `4 p
( ~6 g& B8 j: R, { G/ A3 U系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
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6 u& p7 u1 u0 i$ n4 ]9 M# `* u3 \币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
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未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富. V$ _ |( Q( c+ ?4 t" y8 T) O
! O/ ^- D! ~; _0 K/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。$ u6 r: u# e0 M4 k7 O
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