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* P% B {9 \1 _5 b3 T" D( [6 G比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。 4 h2 j" \9 ~2 u5 H# U& q, r0 C/ h
1 t5 g7 C" ?5 O) U% p, d9 a监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，
5 {) D+ \+ K( |3 H, F9 k. ?- U: }8 g9 W, J& k8 q5 R
专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 W. r& {* w n Y2 C9 \: s
- E) r8 s* @ I B5 M. [9 H有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技* u4 S8 X8 U- B b+ g4 \) a; h2 d
8 O1 \; `7 G5 o( z股等风险较高的投资。
' e6 m% C& i4 f# @1 }0 U
- Z5 B4 R: T9 _$ ]1 W. m芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储$ h' u2 g: g& d: @2 K2 i* B# j5 s" J
+ Z+ H0 k/ v! H, b# ^
明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。 0 ]/ C' F6 s; X3 f
% }' N) ]1 g/ \- ?. b! ]+ c2 D6 e
现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动
% @9 j0 ?' ?6 l1 z
1 o4 e. o0 K( V( l( P/ W因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。 ' T( {2 \) S% T/ |9 R
, O5 t+ g1 f( Z从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。
1 O; \! X5 R/ Y+ ]3 }9 g* e( Q' l$ I/ a+ T) p& Y# w
更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此
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+ v6 v$ b/ ]5 m: a2 }3 Y5 X仍有许多交易商可能买入。 4 U7 g+ |% f7 Y& W( f' Z, K. @
* c) K" s- f0 x$ V库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的
- X5 b. K# T3 x" [% F: z! S8 j* y3 G, r8 p( U; a
推动力之一。
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02+ ]2 _; [3 }0 _1 j( D. d6 ~% y
( Y' U+ Q" P" Z) U9 n' r有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。 / p6 n. Z. c% _; |) ]
& X" a! s$ `* \" J& [需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。 1 a& o1 z& v M7 p
2 C4 l0 E( [" O( O9 x+ {, o' N加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣
5 T! a ~- B/ @% T# }2 ?' b% C1 k$ K' L% X' v5 g' x1 ]- \, K
的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。” $ y1 G# U$ `' R- E& a
# a2 N0 C6 X, f" C7 v数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至
* w. k: j$ G8 ], J' W
- {$ g. W: }2 A2 ~1 k今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。 4 [* w* y5 k) y
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