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小分3种情况:
7 r9 r, d5 e1 a! M, t5 _' V. r" C9 j% q" o# Y
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。0 ^3 e" S2 \! Y; q' w
; j1 f8 e3 Z( ]. {) P2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。2 M/ [' ~- ?' \$ K
. T1 \" N' L0 l- k2 k0 s! \1 p" M) a3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
% E4 ~+ z' A( G4 i# f6 P0 w) H' l) e2 D' h
2张牌8或9点的情况有:: A8 j# j. D! c3 m( u* @
" w% o$ N' i }! I1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10& j9 f# \8 `' z& o) ^
; p4 C& }2 `1 g0 K" R5 C1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
- j# l# U2 i% @/ @: U% {8 L A5 k& c7 k3 |
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
0 A5 @* O4 `; ~0 ^+ F$ j4 U! l4 s2 @4 b/ g! G% p: G1 Z
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4159 P& i) a! ~, r5 f! \+ a% @
( n" l2 W4 t4 M/ x& W4 ?, q3 D+ G
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。; R5 I4 ~8 y, q( d8 U
" m+ ~# M7 a7 T4 `) ]
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。" ~& A1 N' D2 G$ y' {
$ Y& }9 {8 P. | s c) `2 b4 J5 }那么我们可以得出, f! ?# \" p9 `9 E1 E, g( U
( _. {, S: f" F+ w: d" l
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346627 u' A5 v* D6 p7 k- ]% `- j
1 o: \% r6 o% v! V! i( u
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 # R3 e6 U# Y$ N# b/ f
- l+ k. j, u% b9 W o$ O, n3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
' m, Y4 o9 ]5 q0 E0 h1 j: q! z( }. C+ L; X
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323+ p. u! ^8 a/ z3 \7 ~
. W0 d9 V1 r4 A% _# `, z
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
$ h$ M7 i& D! W2 @ Z q7 c+ @ y |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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