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[lastpost] => 2784957 比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转） 1764235229 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。# g. y q' Y, K7 W, V) i; Q
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要点总结：! c- s- j( X6 [3 b& @
由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。# I8 i. m: e, h9 b1 r v
链上
+ C5 B( j7 l7 i! Q在区块链上记录和验证的交易。7 W. N- z ^" k9 N) u" D. t
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链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。0 b$ V, b0 C2 M0 [: l
技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。; _, c! M( d8 F: D! l% p
本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。# B5 I8 V( t- r! u; z
* `3 M5 }% t$ C# |. ]美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应) h9 {: t( l8 k: d9 ]
推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。
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当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
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链上指标变得具有建设性1 c. O$ m* w5 I% M( u" z0 z- G
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。, T+ L* m1 y& y y/ a4 W9 i" |* ~
6 v% a: G T" N普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。& e8 y9 @8 D2 t! L* q/ N; [- H
9 h2 T1 q! q0 F6 j现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf2 y- m7 X( T4 x! t. A. Q! H
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— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日
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6 Q. K( I4 M7 |" P, H1 |市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。
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衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。
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/ D3 i& \, N& F7 R0 G. }技术图表显示动能正在增强。, @9 O1 X3 n; \' c5 F7 h
比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI" [3 F7 {8 r; M. Z9 A/ {# j% O+ T
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相对强弱指数
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9 v4 B& G! u9 G% y S7 [0 g和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
# B! x$ C" u2 E* x6 X$ Q移动平均收敛/发散
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- W2 [& z: F: G! k6 k+ o( K% I( \“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。
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