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[lastpost] => 2768433 一年暴增40%!24万人靠加密成百万富翁,你还在观望吗? 1759077196 天策-瑶娥
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人工智能的爆发式增长正引发对电力的空前渴求,而能够立即满足这一需求的供给却极为有限。据追风交易台消息,根据摩根士丹利21日的研究报告,& K( X' H& U- p4 Y
2025年至2028年间,仅美国就面临高达45吉瓦(GW)的数据中心电力缺口。
' g, C7 i @5 O5 b5 D6 \即便考虑到天然气、核能等其他创新解决方案,缺口依然存在。
* v$ y6 O; v2 i9 ~, x1 r与需要数年才能并网的新项目不同,比特币矿企拥有现成的、已接入电网的大型场地和电力容量。报告指出,
1 ]: L f* t" G美国比特币矿企拥有约6.3吉瓦的已运营大型站点,以及另外2.5吉瓦在建产能,是AI公司“最快获得电力、执行风险最低”的选择。8 h2 z/ t& a+ v5 H" j: I
目前,许多比特币矿企的股票估值仍停留在挖矿逻辑上,其“企业价值/瓦特”(EV/Watt)指标极低。报告测算,
& z3 A) s+ I6 k2 K将矿场改造为数据中心所创造的股权价值可达每瓦特5至8美元,远高于这些公司当前的交易水平。. K9 ^; H; N N) x" d1 H# O7 z
对于投资者而言,这或许意味着一个显著的价值错配和潜在的Alpha机会。
* u+ q4 Y# k4 w5 @) O7 C迫在眉睫的电力瓶颈
$ Q. |' g* G, @% QAI对算力的需求呈指数级增长,但这背后是电力的硬约束。摩根士丹利的模型显示,2025至2028年间,美国数据中心的电力需求预计为65吉瓦。然而,目前电网能提供的近期接入容量仅为15吉瓦,加上在建的约6吉瓦数据中心,两者相加后仍存在约45吉瓦的巨大电力缺口。( z$ f3 a# h! y: t5 M1 f. D
报告分析,即使将天然气涡轮机交易(约15-20吉瓦)、Bloom Energy的燃料电池(约5-8吉瓦)以及利用现有核电站的方案(约5-15吉瓦)等所有创新措施都考虑在内,并假设它们都能顺利执行,
! I3 Q- z3 V+ n; s3 G- f到2028年,美国数据中心开发者仍将面临约5至15吉瓦的电力短缺。$ F6 t- N+ A* W& K7 B; Z) W% L
施耐德电气最近的一份调查报告也印证了这一挑战,指出“获取电力”已成为数据中心项目延期的首要原因。
6 \) l2 I. B u5 G; c8 A9 i被市场低估的“电力现货”:比特币矿场的独特价值3 u, a E* j' k/ F' _
在电力瓶颈之下,比特币矿场提供了一个看似出人意料却又合乎逻辑的解决方案。摩根士丹利指出,这些矿场拥有AI玩家最看重的核心资产:
9 a3 d7 f- g. x- M1 f已获批的电网连接和大规模电力供应能力。这使得它们可以绕开新建数据中心通常需要经历的、耗时数年的“大负荷互联”审批流程。 K; A& V- Q9 G; W: @/ ?: ~1 N; {# a
数据显示,
8 W% Q0 c# M z4 k美国比特币矿企拥有约6.3吉瓦已投入运营的大型(100兆瓦以上)站点,另有2.5吉瓦在建,以及8.6吉瓦已获得电网接入许可的开发中项目。
5 E: W+ F; a `报告认为,这些现成的电力资源对AI公司具有极高价值,将这些站点改造为AI数据中心,其建设周期(约18-24个月)与比特币站点从开发到完善电力基础设施的时间线可以完美契合。
4 g/ C1 e, U+ X) @4 a& h Q2 Q摩根士丹利强调,“企业价值/瓦特”(EV/Watt)是评估此类公司价值的一个被市场忽视的关键指标。许多比特币矿业公司的估值仍显著偏低。7 E* d. Q) V; q/ x% @
将比特币矿场改造为HPC数据中心所能创造的经济价值是惊人的。摩根士丹利通过一个价值创造分析模型进行了演算:假设一家比特币矿企将一个100兆瓦的站点改建成一个“带电外壳”数据中心(不含芯片和服务器),然后长期租赁给客户。
b- P1 I5 ^+ J分析显示,
7 ^/ s, K. Z* w5 |4 a( |若租户为大型云服务商(Hyperscaler),该项目可创造约5.19亿美元的股权价值,即每瓦5.19美元。若租户为新兴云服务商(Neocloud),可创造的股权价值更高,达到约7.81亿美元,即每瓦7.81美元。7 C* _2 i1 ?7 F6 Z% d$ d. C1 B
报告指出,这个约5至8美元/瓦的价值创造潜力,远高于目前许多比特币矿业股的交易水平。这种交易结构通常采用项目融资,杠杆率高,同时避免了持有芯片本身带来的商业风险,对各方都具有吸引力。
D D# y% U' U6 r; ?0 `* b8 T本文来自华尔街见闻,欢迎下载APP查看更多
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比特币矿企可能成为解决AI供电需求的一大机会,投资者得好好把握哦 |
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这波矿工转AI供电简直稳如老狗,估值修复怕是要起飞啊 |
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