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比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。 % ]$ `( j7 n% J9 g
8 G; ?7 ]8 q8 A监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，! Z6 d0 B3 W6 u' V9 ?" ?0 ]
6 B: F, ?5 P* c6 I: l
专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 % E& u! R* ^3 y K
Q% N) w: S7 {有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技, Z* D B0 x8 u/ _
4 @# Q' L: u' Z0 x5 y
股等风险较高的投资。 % h- _. T1 [0 T' ?7 _7 O
- x3 f* ?5 s. w! m( \芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储
6 ]5 {8 Q5 H9 W9 k$ M
/ F# y. k, v2 b明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。
' ]0 X* y. Q# q# P3 ?0 c/ L
/ q: ~% D2 B9 B) o( m- Z0 ~5 \现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动( R& X+ e' q! l) b2 n
" A2 B! [2 Z4 d9 j0 d& x
因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。 4 `( H' @; d8 v% [7 ?$ O7 g
$ k. L4 s G2 m+ M, w2 |从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。 % f8 p4 G& \2 R/ V) R3 x$ [- D( ^
! @! A# O6 Z; b6 r1 J
更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此
; D7 e* r! L1 \% V& W
" \; H7 R7 Z* U) q. \! A6 k& T仍有许多交易商可能买入。
# z# r# m k8 T5 Y' ^% v7 \3 f }
9 ?. `& X/ Q, z3 W( U$ C库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的! b: w, U9 [2 h: E. M! |, n0 E5 f
3 ~' G0 x: G% ?& \4 x( g/ y" D( I$ }
推动力之一。
0 G- @" R3 Z3 | }! C6 p. W+ V4 \. E8 O+ E9 p, f& L2 l1 z" H+ K6 N
02
' t; s( i* {- V0 @$ p6 G
4 D( Y$ h9 ?1 j3 T, |有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。 / z1 M. }, k; O
: C3 s; j8 O: j" j' Z! Q需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。 , Z" P W4 ] ]4 l q# y9 b, g# b, g5 z
' x1 D6 ?" n3 V8 u2 ?( d k6 _
加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣, N+ l" [; K. ^! e8 @' F7 t/ F' u2 ?
; S( m: G3 r( y$ R
的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。”
9 ?6 f, H7 [- S
, |( z* r P) \: {: W6 K数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至
9 n9 V! W& i$ W/ F$ b
3 q0 T: V( @/ @' S; T7 ]今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。
8 B7 y ] b3 t7 C# Z4 [$ Q, a. }; m# G
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