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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资比特币月度报告：5个指标分析BTC呈现看涨趋势（转载）
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木头姐Cathie Wood旗下的方舟投资(Ark Invest)，近期发布比特币7月的分析报告指; a3 n; }7 P* z* W, o) m
出，从比特币支撑及阻力方面来看，币价「呈现看涨」趋势。+ | _/ ?- m e V+ {# |
比特币在短期持有者成本基础(28328美元)和200周均线(26623美元)处仍有支撑，而在已实现价格处，则可能面& U/ U; Q$ W s: i s1 i& N
临阻力，即33949美元。, I/ H7 W% {. S# S0 k% h8 \7 Z
已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被' w3 c* I2 M g* q U, o7 \) X- e
购买时的「平均成本」。
7 y7 q6 ]( _3 U |5 T! h同时比特币已实现波动性(90天)出现自2017年以来未见的低水平，降至36%，基于此低波动性，方舟投资认为比
. u& S- l; e4 Z+ Q* |8 O特币价格可能会在未来几个月内朝某个方向大幅波动。
2 h/ g- q3 J+ X& ]0 I) ^在矿工活动方面，则呈现看涨迹象，比特币算力的30日移动平均线跌破了60日移动平均线，表明矿工活动已经减
2 U% E) Q1 f( a4 U% ]3 e& \1 |少，这对矿工付出成本的降低有帮助3 G) s$ |: ?$ u' D" r. J
比特币网络活跃度方面，可衡量当前持有行为的潜在抛售压力，此一指标也呈现看涨，而7月活跃度降至60%以
" A' N# Z k/ g+ v' M下，表现出自2020年第4季以来最强劲的长期持有行为。 n9 _3 \$ F5 m7 K( N9 x; a
比特币短期持有者盈亏比方面，同样呈现看涨，盈亏比在本月接近1，表示投机者处于盈亏平衡的水平，在牛市环
: W+ U' [4 E7 x3 H2 |; P境中，这通常与短期修正后的看涨反转相关。0 ?$ k6 i" H; U) `2 s( [
最后值得注意的是，方舟提醒，由于货币政策的运作有长达12至18个月的长期且可变的滞后性，联准会先前利率+ T, o6 S/ W# r! F: l% u2 z
升息22倍的全面影响尚未显现，而这趋向于看跌，住房、制造业等对利率敏感的产业也已率先陷入衰退，其余经# s/ m$ q# y7 A# U- x
济领域可能是下一个。# d. M( ]& q+ T8 J3 X: N! s
' ?/ p2 m7 w) }! o/ z$ E: s+ a
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