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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资比特币月度报告：5个指标分析BTC呈现看涨趋势（转载）
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木头姐Cathie Wood旗下的方舟投资(Ark Invest)，近期发布比特币7月的分析报告指, p- j7 J" L: b' k% L
出，从比特币支撑及阻力方面来看，币价「呈现看涨」趋势。
/ P# l% v; P; H4 v. q比特币在短期持有者成本基础(28328美元)和200周均线(26623美元)处仍有支撑，而在已实现价格处，则可能面
/ g8 g: z% X1 \, R a2 ^临阻力，即33949美元。. L% v8 f+ K) p5 u
已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被0 H9 S' q4 R0 ?" \/ p$ c' s/ q
购买时的「平均成本」。
/ R; h& }3 Q; t' t- ^' A/ E* [7 K同时比特币已实现波动性(90天)出现自2017年以来未见的低水平，降至36%，基于此低波动性，方舟投资认为比0 c& g3 X4 k3 n* P/ T- F
特币价格可能会在未来几个月内朝某个方向大幅波动。
7 B; u2 K3 u! |! B/ f在矿工活动方面，则呈现看涨迹象，比特币算力的30日移动平均线跌破了60日移动平均线，表明矿工活动已经减3 c# u4 v; h& h: g& s- ~
少，这对矿工付出成本的降低有帮助 C' f7 L8 ^0 u& d7 \% T
比特币网络活跃度方面，可衡量当前持有行为的潜在抛售压力，此一指标也呈现看涨，而7月活跃度降至60%以3 |$ G) Q5 x. f9 I; O% l# G2 j W
下，表现出自2020年第4季以来最强劲的长期持有行为。/ @: p" ~3 S2 v$ b3 u9 |/ i
比特币短期持有者盈亏比方面，同样呈现看涨，盈亏比在本月接近1，表示投机者处于盈亏平衡的水平，在牛市环, H* S8 D% [: _* c/ Q9 X- h
境中，这通常与短期修正后的看涨反转相关。+ G, i8 j! ^! v1 W/ W
最后值得注意的是，方舟提醒，由于货币政策的运作有长达12至18个月的长期且可变的滞后性，联准会先前利率
" a. @3 b7 y& M; P8 L% d升息22倍的全面影响尚未显现，而这趋向于看跌，住房、制造业等对利率敏感的产业也已率先陷入衰退，其余经
- L: W3 e# i8 u; H, Q济领域可能是下一个。
! @# E/ h3 S; V* n7 E* _
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