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小分3种情况:: k* M x& H: h, M$ r+ u+ I
6 Y# t% a6 Q" q# u. t/ O. f1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。2 I7 W8 t& M% z: k2 f
+ S4 r' O) f3 E/ D* M: P2 C
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
( L d, e2 X" k$ k: z9 U
7 D5 r3 X+ Z# U6 o3 u5 L3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。/ X; M$ a3 _# k/ I! T% t0 e% N
4 L$ \- p1 P. j& i) q; t# P4 r0 A2张牌8或9点的情况有:
- [! }3 d# F y+ ~- J8 t" a D, V/ c* [
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10" K, ~; I- Z9 d8 N+ A0 X
9 t# A/ ~( H6 \( a" x
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
: H6 }* ?% D9 z6 y5 C8 l+ n% Z+ A3 A K% m; y$ M$ Z! g; P
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
9 _* ^+ o; }* Q/ K8 M, Z0 c- E4 x' s/ N1 E( F
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415# ^+ J" T. D" E5 ?; y% E5 g
/ w5 F4 T1 z `. ~4 @: E由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。, ^, O6 T$ H7 Z0 \# d
& h. ?9 m) |- G, i5 O; K
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
* H+ Y) ^! ~) E) |; Q- L) @: F6 f
F; _7 s$ t4 I! h' Q, I" O$ o那么我们可以得出
& h% {) y9 L& r1 q% N6 d; b+ B
: w( b4 j% F- r5 Q' X& J1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346627 M) u9 ^& z$ ]7 _8 P3 v4 B, V
3 ]/ g; g& B/ R! s2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
^) k% Z* f4 N; L; @. A u) j; s' T! @% ]8 `( M: S' ^& v
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
6 A0 z% Z+ Q0 T5 ?4 v+ v6 N! c
$ {/ {0 x0 S$ n* @, C所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
& i6 }, D( D0 X' S, @7 Z
5 `8 p# V) ~4 V) X) ]百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
3 e1 L/ j( z; ~! ^8 R |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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