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[lastpost] => 2645173 比特币彩虹图预测:BTC 到 2025 年将达到 45 万美元?(转) 1714025674 人生如赌
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干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少?
y% X6 h0 ~/ Z. A很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本,包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说?可能有几方面原因:一是从历史经验来看,BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是,如果BTC价格一直跌,跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本,那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc,这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系,我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。
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+ u5 g+ \$ X' ^% z一、要确定电费成本,首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值,这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下,电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。
' |' t+ I% `, ]$ j5 PBTC历史挖矿难度变动情况:% R7 _( P+ Y1 `! @3 Z
图片:不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图! M" G5 \4 s6 B5 g# r
" s" @/ T: w8 n. m+ `很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降,但是sorry,即使在2018年这么大熊市,挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。(难度按照年初首次统计,年中基本呈波动上升状态)* r p5 ?1 r4 D( A' b# k
好了,那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度,测算下来,每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。 ?6 S0 A9 G9 [8 W" X( j) c
/ ~* s6 [ x7 C/ H二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。; Y# a. K" g% @0 V
图片:不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图
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* \( x( H) L2 |7 C+ k) x好了,很清楚了。第一档,家用电的小散,早就关机了。
: p+ O6 _$ R% \8 K# E第二档,普通水电、常规托管电费的,挖矿暂时没亏,但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。
/ ]$ r0 g3 ]! k- }* j# F第三档,老少边穷的风电、火电等,如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态,因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc,需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc,而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。
; g- u1 a, J) Q1 L' i( u8 M很多人还说有第4档,伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电,请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没,真的去的也是少数。呵呵。
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' N9 |/ G! {/ O三、那么又一个问题来了,大家都亏损或接近亏损,为啥还有人挖?原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的,比如极寒同学,他们在新疆的矿场,BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本?明白了没。* A' |, B' K, ?" Q) J
当然,价格主要由供需决定,难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了,如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。6 w E2 _; K. @1 u5 x
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来,我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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