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[打法交流]
百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略
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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。
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% ^; }, X2 U; t; o3 P1 |一般来说,6 e1 W2 f# @; `, U& q6 d
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二连赢的概率是25%
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8 q" s5 K- y! A三连赢的概率是12.5%
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四连赢的概率是6.25%8 N+ b! ]8 _6 w, a7 i5 k
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- t# u/ s% x( q4 R十连赢的概率是0.09765625%
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这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。
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9 J) c8 V P+ _3 Z; }; |7 J百家乐的真实概率含义是:
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1 |9 d0 ]0 {# s假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球
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1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。
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4 z* U! w# w- F* f5 p5 e你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。
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! V; M+ ^8 q* ?3 Y$ r你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。6 {) P& d' w. \+ F K. c# U
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另外一个说法是,% ^: f3 w9 n( A- G0 r6 K2 @3 y
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。
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2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。# r% M$ e/ J$ x2 y y+ `
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再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。' w. D- X2 {* E1 S! o& }3 E, W# A
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平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。
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7 m% g6 h) x) e5 l8 o/ ^对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。+ A4 }5 h6 X! F2 h1 q5 `
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举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。
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4 H8 I7 z* Y& B" Q) g第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化) C: C6 T: j) i3 p d$ I8 S8 B
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第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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. i- _* H+ c6 F$ O% Z首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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. x2 a7 r' D. a5 r: Q( e: a事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。
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+ Y1 U+ _" c4 e7 R6 G* k因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。
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