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当前离线
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3月1日消息,据英国《金融时报》报道,比特币价格在兑许多货币的比率中创下新的纪录高位。( H% @6 h$ w/ p1 v5 U* X7 o B
- l0 S" l9 ~% ?+ `! M& L8 z$ q5 g美国批准比特币现货ETF的消息助长了市场的热情。预期在四月底比特币挖矿产出减半加剧了市场的8 u) }0 l# o( @% L7 W+ t
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狂热。预期下一次减半的买家需求上升,解释了为什么加密货币牛市现在愉快地预测比特币价格很快+ }8 I2 o- q0 B9 ]& z9 c
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将超过100,000美元。
$ J7 l2 }8 R! L4 _4 o
0 C v8 y# L2 g6 \, K仔细观察,这种看涨目标似乎有些可疑。根据摩根大通的估计,目前的生产成本——主要是用于进
) A" k. O7 i% o9 ^, x: G7 A7 Q0 M: h7 b3 v1 c2 z
行挖矿计算的电力成本——约为27,000美元。这为比特币设定了一个价格底线。减半后,这个价格将
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1 R# \( Z! u( s4 Y) x短期内跳升至约50,000美元。
5 y! e3 q+ i& Q8 }8 x9 z t" B+ @* L0 g* q- [/ J" X
然而,最近的激增使比特币价格远远超过了生产成本。对于比特币而言,这种情况并不可持续。此外,
" j0 C8 B- ?. @' Y3 H, [1 o1 V* P: z( ~6 a( \
这些成本在减半后不久就应该开始下降,因为效率低下的矿工将退出市场,无法跟上步伐。随着旧机
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器被淘汰,哈希率应该会下降,生产成本也会随之降低。在某个时候,价格上涨势头将会减弱。假设
+ y, c* t R4 B" h( m& ^2 t# v5 t q+ |% E$ H" {
挖矿处理能力下降了五分之一,那么生产成本相应将下降到约43,000美元左右。
+ v! ]/ e) ` t1 u* c& C, n, `% \
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