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[lastpost] => 2746909 比特币 (BTC) 牛市来临之前,值得投资的 9 种最佳加密货币(转) 1751721964 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。1 C( E( D' J2 ^$ K" `
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。 L; R Y3 U; o( s {3 F
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。5 g9 y- j( B4 N1 Z; L- V
) i, J! Y; t4 l- G% q5 \4 J' P- c. H其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。8 g7 ]6 p5 N y# I- c
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Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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5 c5 Z5 w1 A J5 Y. |. G/ w2 k- T( z“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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/ L6 q# ?6 v8 W$ k1 A3 q/ pBTC 图表暗示了什么
0 @# g5 k! Z9 P% [8 _( X1 d虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。8 F5 e0 ]% [! |
2 g8 v: m' e; n+ f+ Z( X5 @首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。+ T2 b' ?# y& r6 a
% n; L9 I, W' y2 t当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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2 R4 E$ s: U, L1 p) O最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。$ K6 e" X) r) s
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最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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e @5 f* G2 G4 ]5 q" X截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。% R% ]/ Y7 A2 c8 G' e1 E
8 M) F6 @& C7 ~ Z! U简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。$ W) f8 u% J2 a$ _4 A2 O+ g. ^% s) g
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。% T: P/ ~' E. C# J1 \; S
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