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[lastpost] => 2771245 Circle 报告:亚太稳定币交易量飙至 2.4 万亿美元 新加坡与香港领跑-转 1759617823 一帆风顺发
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失,这是本周期中最多的9 z% C9 Q }/ N& Y) P
比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下,短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
3 a/ Z% |6 n5 p# P/ g. B0 S短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装,这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是,尽管有所有压力,历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。9 R3 l* y7 {/ E3 Z
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比特币损失爬升,但保持在历史范围内
% d) G) z! p: \9 }0 f实际上,来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。
" U5 K( g. z: G" m: _
) z' L' k5 m" C0 N2 P# H然而,它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内,尚未违反投降领域。
9 \7 N4 J. D `' r" n
2 N% j/ w+ Y6 ]3 dSTH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的,在过去的30天中,已实现的损失超过70亿美元。
# G3 s5 ]# {3 w2 g1 e! m; u6 U* `& U1 a, P- }/ N/ f
尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件,但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间,它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。( Y7 l% A" {3 ]- I, ?+ C0 `0 z
, g& N h# j4 K1 d- @+ z这意味着,尽管损失一直在增加,但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说,短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失,而不是忍受更深层的缩减,这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。 H: ~. D; Z5 v/ P F1 [
$ E% c3 ?" V. Q n比特币价格结构和风险区域
* q3 H0 C2 o" X+ N6 C* n发稿时,比特币的交易价格为84,322美元,加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下,远低于200天移动平均线,为95,174美元。) b2 o' ~ k& ?+ J
T: h' \: u! n& r/ E n5 F
这些水平形成关键阻力区,并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。
% X" y! I# ?$ h* z, F3 N( y! ^2 Y( {0 ~0 s% L
布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围,暗示可能突破了。
5 F- i; d1 b8 t* ]% K* A. Q+ @% o* ]+ C+ \! x1 C
但是,由于短期持有人在压力下,除非新需求进入市场,否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。" s7 f% ~" v! D8 _4 ?, |! o) l
% [# ]# G; a4 F- P0 S( R0 w这对比特币趋势意味着什么
' n7 @* q: }! N- x* a未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高,特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是,这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内,这表明尚未确认宏逆转。# s2 a% Z9 }5 g/ y
5 {& G7 `; w% t& v+ G) }
如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持,则可以在STH中更新信心。相反,如果不持有83,000美元,可能会导致更多销售,同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。- a& u6 j# x8 s( V6 u
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总体而言,短期疼痛是显而易见的,但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整,这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。8 Q( x& G% b) {6 T
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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