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[lastpost] => 2772134 对话木头姐Cathie Wood：Ark投资三大方向，比特币、以太坊、Solana是最终选择（转 1759942036 caoch
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
8 T: o" u$ }* G5 t! ?5 v( G! _委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自
t q u* d, nBlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。( w& m2 J0 s: V5 ~4 j. M5 e$ F
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
2 H6 J4 ]2 u5 ], a批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始
* r3 x8 w( l6 t4 u e& q7 F. z/ s% ]0 Y后240天做出裁决。
, g. A' O1 H5 V1 f. f分析师：预料之内会被推迟
' ?" m9 \. `/ u/ Z6 n' v8 Z彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也
9 c, E* W* _) N1 y$ @* J) \变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方
0 g2 k! C$ J* C. S- [: Z在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行
* G% G, ^7 u% K& U长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力/ j1 w$ m8 T! M4 |7 w: q: [
来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
, D$ P) B1 Z$ E" d讶。" m4 @0 p3 S/ n
事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争8 {% P, }( t! Q5 T5 @
环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成$ X. |6 s% Q- h0 H5 j
功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。7 _8 _( c9 m; U; n. K' C4 D/ z: o
三大利好消息酝酿, |6 L& @2 H. @1 L2 F. T
市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：
+ {" |! O+ X/ G7 tGBTC负溢价率缩窄! J7 I6 K2 w( K2 f/ a
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持- E5 o8 B/ a- ?
续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可" w: K5 i" a/ E4 q0 }6 m
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。
; d, A0 G2 t/ D$ {5 _- X" U2 A杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线- C# Y& k5 ]$ q5 @* |
值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只6 o9 A# j% @, O, Z
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。( ^: X, S* R x7 b% J( M
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请0 R, M% N% ^ O3 [/ @7 u* Q
不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
! s6 K! U' E. C8 c' ^; t' k多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然 R3 m) O1 j5 e \* K
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
( A. T! S. k7 X! K r' B4 G; D/ N8 D: h) S0 V P& }3 z3 a5 v
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