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[虚拟币交流]
大量比特币转移信号市场转变——这是获利回吐还是战略资本轮换？（转）
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在大幅回调之后，比特币多头似乎重新控制了涨势，防止了过度的看跌行动
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目前，BTC 价格既有可能跌破 12 万美元，又有可能继续看涨，创下新的历史新高。
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比特币的链上活动引发了新的争论，因为大额钱包资金流动的激增预示着市场定位可能发生变化。过去24小时内，记录了多笔高额比特币交易。这表明，鲸鱼们可能正在锁定利润，或是在预期更广泛的市场轮动而重新分配资金。BTC转账量的突然上升通常先于市场波动阶段，交易员会评估这一走势是预示机构获利回吐，还是为下一轮牛市进行战略布局。
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$ s) C2 O0 T# J/ t# q9 e随着各大交易所流动性收紧，未来几天可能会揭示这些走势是否标志着盘整阶段的开始，或者是新一轮上行势头的开始。2 g% [/ S t! n" a8 R% s" t5 [
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价值超过 40 亿美元的比特币被转移
7 X8 ?! P# ]# g: @0 E6 uCryptoQuant 最新的链上数据显示，比特币已用输出年限（3-5 年）的急剧上升，表明长期持有者正在越来越多地转移其闲置的比特币。此类变动通常发生在关键的市场阶段，预示着投资者情绪的变化。鉴于比特币近期徘徊在局部高点附近，这种老币活动激增表明，随着市场即将迎来下一个方向性走势，早期投资者可能正在为获利了结或战略性重新配置做准备。
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图表显示，持有3-5年的比特币消费量显著增加，与此同时价格从12.4万美元区域回落。这种模式表明，在早期周期中积累的长期持有者正在变得活跃，这通常是短期波动性上升的先兆。如果这些交易代表抛售，那么随着获利回吐加剧，短期回调可能随之而来。然而，如果这些币被转移是为了重新定位或转移托管，这可能标志着资金轮换，为下一个市场积累阶段做好准备。
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接下来会发生什么？这会拖累比特币价格下跌吗？; V) m( I6 u0 c0 L& G- Q, Y0 B5 D
就在月度收盘前，比特币多头引发强劲反弹，并突破了看跌的阻力位。这进一步推动比特币价格上涨至126,199美元左右的新高，随后进入了一段时间的盘整。不幸的是，此次盘整导致了大幅回调，盘中一度跌至120,574美元左右的低点。然而，多头似乎已经开启了一轮反弹，但问题是，比特币究竟处于复苏阶段，还是短期上涨。
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. C, Z6 D- V" R. p从日线图可以看出，比特币价格继续保持在上升平行通道内。因此，当前的回调可能是多头在低点入场并推高涨势的另一个机会。考虑到吸筹/派发指标，这表明价格再次进入吸筹阶段，因为该指标已显示出看涨背离。同时，RSI 也表现出类似的走势，证实了看涨的判断。
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现在波动性即将上升，118,600 美元的通道平均范围可能成为比特币 (BTC) 价格达到 128,000 美元中期目标的强劲支撑。
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