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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意!—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%(转) 1752889314 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在恐慌与不确定性中保持强势:BTC 如何避免进一步亏损(转)
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比特币下跌 7% 表明宏观压力不断上升,市场正在重新调整。
' w, E* H h4 h# B ]7 W随着避险资金流的增强,金价仍距历史高点仅 2%。' L6 r, U# m, }" ]" H* ~
宏观恐惧与不确定性(FUD)又回到了讨论中,但说实话,它从未真正消失过。反过来,比特币[BTC]再次成为众矢之的。6 P! }& d; `3 b" g3 g! d& a) P
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经过三天的深度去杠杆后,“10 万美元有风险吗?”的讨论又重新活跃起来。- ?+ f9 a5 R D0 h
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然而,BTC 并没有持续下跌太久。它强劲反弹 3%,再次测试 10.5 万美元大关,而这一走势看起来并非昙花一现。1 y- W! z2 c- J# X
+ T" N" E2 u& b+ K; Q& K7 R% m6 q1 y据AMBCrypto称,交易员似乎正在从过去的市场震荡中吸取教训,将之前的恐惧转化为策略。如果真是这样,这是否意味着大众最终会变得更加聪明?
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5 U1 [7 _5 w& Z8 m- aFUD 情绪升温,BTC 表现强劲# o7 [9 L* ^9 M2 g, R) C! `: w; {! \
别误会,这并非典型的关税引发的市场恐慌与不确定性。目前正在上演的是两个中东国家之间的全面冲突,这两个国家都是OPEC的重要成员国。( h% t* p" P# `: I6 k( o
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过去两个月里,油价已上涨近40%,与伊朗相关的原油基准价格在过去24小时内飙升近5%。这一切都发生在距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次决议不到一周之际。/ m3 e! _! { Y. E3 c
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风险资产回应迅速地。
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+ K: t6 i, Q) M道琼斯指数下跌近 900 点,随着资本防御性地转向债券,10 年期美国国债收益率下跌近 3%,美元指数 (DXY) 下跌约 3%,反映出全球市场正在降低风险。
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# r5 M3 A8 \$ z" r- n1 l/ x* `黄金[XAU]也做出了回应,在避险需求激增的背景下,上涨近4%,至3,432美元。从技术面来看,黄金目前已近在咫尺,距离重返历史高点仅剩2%。( Y( [& R; w5 {8 f1 O
* C5 M9 ?1 g% _2 W& m% i- @( F当然,有些人会指出比特币7%的跌幅,并称这证明“韧性”论调正在崩盘。考虑到围绕加息可能暂停的“预期”不断升温,这种担忧也合情合理。
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+ k" L. I% W' v4 O# G6 N然而,市场定位却揭示了一个更加微妙的故事。它表明,这与其说是屈服,不如说是重新调整。
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交易员越来越聪明) Z9 p3 K5 D/ r$ @ M/ N
尤其, 机构流动已悄然再次转为看涨,不到一周的时间,就有近 13 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。
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这种流入起到了关键的减震器的作用,支持 BTC 从低点迅速回升 3%。
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( Y3 d* T+ G4 r. c: {但最大的不确定因素是什么?衍生品交易员。与以往不同,过去未平仓合约 (OI) 过热预示着拥挤,并会导致大幅清算,而这次期货市场保持着惊人的克制力。
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+ [2 y% D# X6 k: q: P( X8 O# m举个例子:5月23日,BTC创下11.1万美元的历史新高,而持仓量(OI)则达到803.1亿美元的峰值。然而,这种泡沫最终引发了市场剧烈的崩盘,导致BTC回落至100,424美元。4 S0 W1 N2 s4 N
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当然,现在宣布确认反弹还为时过早,但这些迹象值得注意。
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- W- D; i8 m4 y尽管在恐慌与不确定性(FUD)爆发前,比特币的看涨势头有所增强,但其持仓量并未达到峰值,即便市场一度逼近历史新高。这种克制表明,市场持仓结构正在日趋成熟。
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8 H- ?7 A3 l$ K; R# h! d$ u与……相比以太坊[ETH],BTC参与者此次采取了更为谨慎的态度。& p) u5 m8 H6 H* _- o2 Y2 n
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通过控制杠杆,他们大大降低了连锁清算事件的风险,有可能挽救数百万美元的损失。
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( C8 s8 j/ |, B加上机构资金流入的强劲吸收,金价再次跌破 10 万美元的可能性现在看来越来越小。
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