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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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8 x) r. K% \6 h& _; T3 P
尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、
0 H& F! n' z4 G, }# k提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。
, p3 n) P" k* S: zPeter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上
5 {( }' V1 d$ u/ ^* `4 ~市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资
" s B* S4 K5 L+ ?. Y0 Q R8 m: @需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」+ Y4 u3 U0 H/ V# D0 i8 w4 _
Peter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都0 S7 @! A5 x6 Y& J6 Q. z- [
证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金6 f! K) G& T. n: @9 P
的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。
1 w; v) Y( c; L4 ~4 \& G- m' Q& p然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档
: i; ~1 O% R0 z/ a; u比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF
$ }: G' d, w2 P的申请。7 g2 s B, g$ K3 |7 n$ c" P
Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月
) [' f( f& y( H$ Z8 i# E- t9 g10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请 o( h" g# O0 ^' s! y# `
案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见5 q. v5 }7 C. A1 O, @* s
到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。8 I# }, W% w/ T$ W9 Z9 S
该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地
. G, W" ~/ ]! D4 q) o5 g位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。( j; U2 ^) {$ n7 b$ G& ~9 T- W6 d
许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在# q+ |$ h& a* J ?# D
1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且 P& M' V( d, b2 v* W
几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。 v5 |) }/ Y2 S( h
彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他
% s* g& g% n7 Y' S相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。2 L; D6 |4 @ j* W8 Z8 r6 x+ E
* ]5 o9 [7 ?, X4 Y. c9 @
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊, U! [# f* g; x
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