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[lastpost] => 2749122 从币圈冲上全球第五！比特币一周暴涨3000亿，连亚马逊和白银都被它“踩在脚下” 1752855889 天策-瑶娥
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0 a0 h% z7 m5 q6 K1 h8 y0 [7 Q 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，& h) |& H! g3 l; \% h
3 X+ F; I* u1 G5 ?7 ^0 R* f
) g9 O7 P6 x) p% [形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于" j# t' ?+ [( r; k, f \
$ I/ }) e& |8 H0 H
逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
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! p3 L( t* t3 Z8 P7 i- O9 F& ?6 x策的确定性。
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中信证券主要观点如下：8 ^4 r: O1 [& o" ]3 W
$ H V# J+ N' ]3 o" U0 q5 g8 @
加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。7 A% o( \; X; M& ]# U1 J
6 \0 U, u8 t( v6 f: ^" T) z 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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3 F. N( V$ y( w9 m; H3 U# o 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。7 e; ]) |5 C1 k. T
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现' I& K- @7 M$ V' C6 o
5 L4 r! ] I: _不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。1 o" l0 n- y; J& z8 P& T4 W* O3 V
: B3 H4 `+ A7 H 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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/ g9 R! c; a [% w' t. C 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。+ W% i, ~0 N4 M! T6 q
/ {6 y8 I# F- x6 _* L# \ 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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0 [! Q/ [9 N9 V! S& Z破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。* F5 [) Y: H' `# O5 A
& X* `, v/ L6 x 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性4 f" ?) d3 v. j$ \: L8 y6 w/ h! w
; t% Q. a! l' C3 X- h9 f& a' i0 S共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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) Z2 j* }/ ^) M. Y7 _4 m9 m6 Z& ? 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。$ h$ W5 ?: i6 q# a" I
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。. g2 \* m+ h" p' H5 O6 G; s: B& A
( ^1 B3 T) N' S* |: S 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政* V4 e' ~! b% N: F
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。; d) `4 |7 t5 ?1 L
2 R% R" }: o' q. W* m 风险因素：: }/ o/ S1 }! r' s: Q
, Q3 c7 [( o* Z, I z5 ]* Z7 M 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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