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[虚拟币交流]
比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。$ f! @- n9 v4 T9 g1 @5 N4 d; Q
尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。
$ x9 g/ T$ g/ o过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。- A/ F) z' L0 W, C4 V
4 ^3 X) k$ _9 C随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。2 W8 Z2 }( {8 \7 v. x
' c+ u: t7 T6 J5 x4 j1 ~1 y6 K$ s从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮
2 U- M1 B8 V8 j; r R- J7 @回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔.
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这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。
+ ~& q4 P2 K+ { b( Q$ ?
! b) K9 q/ Z! a8 V9 T然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。& J, H% @) U. l$ m
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在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。
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% `6 ]4 H8 l- D& b; i2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。
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$ D. w8 W6 U ^ G9 `7 F这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。
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2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?+ K2 M" {1 g0 f) g7 \ |
在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。
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2 V+ G _% v1 M$ L) r* L8 ?$ G目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。
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+ T& n! c+ A7 n' r8 {# |如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。/ W4 h) ~* {0 D
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看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。: U4 Y' |6 Q- ^0 D' y, O
" |. i# | r7 ^$ p从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。
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除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。
S' m% A4 m7 I. c2 _
; V1 M* b! @5 n' o9 L0 h随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。
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2 q, X9 Z! K& V' O. V- i* Q因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。
& V: `5 e& Z2 l3 Y9 \- i/ |+ w& W% A& F7 r; w9 N1 h0 z: F4 z" M
在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。3 c6 d4 m! J' w; `5 g2 ]" Z$ w
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然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。! z7 @* f! V# F- K8 d# e: I8 K( G
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