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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意！—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%（转） 1752889314 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币以98,000美元的价格违反了疑问，那么为什么投资者仍然谨慎？（转）
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比特币集会高于$ 98K，与持续的负面投资者情绪形成鲜明对比；难以置信的可能性可能表明机会。- F0 O l* o* I# Z
大量的ETF流入促进了BTC，但2022年风险的风险仍然可能使这种动力脱轨。/ h( ~2 S* Z/ Z: J
尽管比特币[BTC]令人印象深刻的持有超过$ 98K的大关，投资者的情绪越来越低。这引起了一波怀疑，在牛市中，这感觉奇怪的是不合时宜。
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市场是否难以置信，兴奋不已？还是这些信号反映了2022熊市？
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随着BTC最近的[激增]重点势头，当前的气候可能与基本面一样由心理学来驱动。
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/ m. s6 E. P8 `8 }牛un云蒙上阴影
* f9 k3 o7 o" F5 B7 w K4 W最近的数据显示比特币X（以前为Twitter）和新闻平台上的价格和普遍情绪。: o, B% x. [% ~$ U8 v' A$ S$ C* U
W, v. y3 X8 W0 Z; B0 Q0 q- r即使BTC交易自信地超过9.8万美元，平均7天的平均情绪仍然牢固地负面 - 这种模式在历史上与本地底部和逆势购买机会有关。
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; a& Z, r7 G" c这种持续的难以置信表明市场在心理上落后于价格行动。
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尽管这种情绪下降以前曾在看涨逆转之前，但值得记住的是2022年的警告性故事，在这种情况下，延长的消极情绪与长时间的熊阶段相吻合。0 L( J3 F* p# [' ^, S8 G
9 u6 C& F4 T; j, k; @( mBTC背后的机构引擎
7 Q5 O3 O& X) R+ X在ETF流图表：经过数周的一致流出后，四月迎来了大量ETF流入的政权。
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这种重新获得的机构兴趣主要由贝莱德（Blackrock）和富达（Fidelity）等巨人领导，似乎使比特币向上驱动了势头，将其推向了9.8万美元的大关。) _3 `, G+ }, V7 }2 | H/ o
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与较早几个月的挥发性流动不同，该阶段显示出稳定的每日净流入，表明了强烈的长期信念。" m4 y, g0 Z Y j$ C7 j
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机构信心可能是[激增]的关键力量，即使零售情绪仍然谨慎。
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怎么了？
; @2 K- P2 f$ J7 A尽管ETF流入信号乐观，但历史使投资者保持谨慎。
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7 k+ p7 B4 _# H/ L& ^) \2022年，由机构产品和宏观趋势驱动的看涨情绪，由于流动性冲击和杠杆率过多而崩溃。- P/ C1 K2 S/ T+ X6 B9 [7 c. s0 o
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风险食欲或监管压力的突然转移可能会触发快速流出，从而逆转最近的收益。/ s3 t/ x' F9 U. y, b
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尽管ETF提供了透明度，但它们并不能阻止比特币免受市场波动的影响。如果流入缓慢或转向赎回，比特币可能会面临类似于过去周期的抛售。
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