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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。) n* D, v' E; I. j
$ E+ ~5 b5 Q+ e- \. Z$ E+ n* Q! o4 a 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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; j ?$ ~6 y! E' U7 p; e9 s 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续& f( F% S# ?7 E/ M5 u
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。5 g" v3 m8 \, `4 a- p& C
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。% f$ F. m8 `8 N1 ~/ l
# A1 ~0 |) S3 ?4 e4 S 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。8 r% I% o1 X) g# |6 ^
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) e9 C. b0 k, ^. R( m p 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。! v0 n J1 R$ d
7 E5 Q7 S# z" ]+ e; K7 [) ^ 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，, T0 t: P: z5 f2 z* x
; d3 r0 Q0 ?7 j6 G# d8 c价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。6 h3 Z3 w# U8 e$ E9 \0 } |/ V& e0 ~
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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/ d5 ^" {7 H) c" V8 U框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”) h' v& r6 X2 H: Y. }* }6 R
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。+ x4 i2 L A, Z$ }
. d/ d1 Y, t2 f( t: p 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。2 _; w( Y: s6 J* [
2 ^6 ~" g! e& @9 S- f 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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9 V3 V! K, _6 C0 E' G 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，% z- Q O) y, ~8 @3 R
0 f3 J4 V+ Y* F市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”* H) X. q) q1 x- T- F7 B
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