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[lastpost] => 2768025 加密货币已不再是单纯的炒币...现在可用币买房买车交学费,连“冷冻身体”都行... 1758903906 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势. N/ M7 z+ X% I) ^0 j
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。& ^* R& H7 M3 w9 q
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。 P5 B: I( u) L: A5 L
$ R( F5 m4 T c( ^8 R1 M! wCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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+ T& ?; M8 F1 `" ~! ]4 i6 @2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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+ A0 p) P7 W( E+ y! r( e$ o5 K2 o: N当前持仓成本:
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; ?5 {) O# y' ^4 d4 u机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;, Y2 W" S- K! U/ l) o5 N3 a P
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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# X) W6 o! u5 x- p& o i' wETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。8 x1 d' |( s. N3 V! B
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比特币价值回归:
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0 o0 j, { a- ]* a, T- e, {' Q市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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% ]7 b' r+ w/ t' G" I: P1 \随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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/ A! I% [0 L% ~加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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4 o+ \3 i1 S( F3. 市场热点与反弹情况6 W& B0 F8 I4 D& p, q" P3 S$ O
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ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。5 s* Y' ~2 \2 I# B& y) F# m2 ~! C
. u& j2 z' S: u) B0 P机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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1 J% d( N$ t: i* R1 N" t3 u尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。: `% E6 u! u7 A, y
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。0 M/ d" x+ x0 r8 m# ~$ H7 h& t. W
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SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。( [* g" S* x1 G, X
% `' v8 \5 m. x: N" S/ jXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。$ q$ E7 V. a2 ~* K9 M
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。 [: O: b- O$ [6 e2 H
; O- k2 Z( r( {+ w- y0 E2 E1 @4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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; q5 k4 u) d. S: xAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。# @* u' \ {6 n- F
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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* o+ T3 B4 q3 B& [新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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# V3 R6 N; W4 p7 D, \市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。4 X. j3 C. h8 [: b
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