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[lastpost] => 2768638 黄金带头上涨 贵金属今年全面跑赢比特币 1759150148 爱美的女人
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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1 R; D6 i0 E9 X" N2 z+ m过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。' y' [2 j; D: G% i: H
+ u+ H3 L( V4 O4 L6 |# d0 m; JPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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1 C9 y: T+ O( {3 j) J" E0 E O/ E2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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! K% B- q6 ^+ W当前持仓成本:$ L* x$ l: t, y, z. m8 R8 d* m7 p7 {9 T
) P, Q( A9 A6 ^( D" W+ l8 w2 E- z机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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9 g I) P0 X6 I3 C+ ^. L7 O% X, y微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。# f1 f) Z. j3 @5 V, x, e
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比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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9 C P1 o) z. u7 v% x; i( ^) R8 F随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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( J& A0 v/ ^9 w( y. l2 M! M加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。/ L: @8 U: ?" ]! ^! G* e
' J% R K- x* w; X6 X) c3. 市场热点与反弹情况( y) E% W: B* e2 d' R3 K" c5 ~
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。; w7 X# ]6 J/ e
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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6 J( b1 k' N- V+ D# w9 c如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。# @! z$ K% J g4 @% b
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SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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* B- j% A, i( e) v. `2 l7 N% ^( wXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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3 E- X* |; V1 W4 }% J) [$ J+ e0 @其他热点项目:
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7 Q2 J$ F6 Z5 `3 H$ T$ s1 W涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。) x2 c B9 N8 p
0 H e/ D6 x" V3 g山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。, H3 n/ Y$ e9 ?% N" e9 U- r
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。+ L# J. M7 R5 Z$ Z6 I
% \' F; p1 S0 i+ _) S5 C新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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当前离线
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