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[虚拟币交流]
曾经的当红炸子鸡，如今涨幅远远落后比特币，以太坊准备反弹？（转）
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以太坊在2024年明显落后于比特币。众所周知，截至撰写本文时，ETH今年上涨了18%，而BTC上涨了70%。随着比特币接近一次重大突破尝试并冲击新的历史高点，它无疑吸引了市场的所有注意力，这是有原因的。! j" t& S# t# a0 B
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虽然以太坊似乎已经“失宠”了一段相当长的时间，但这并非是我们以前没有见过的情况。事实上，自2016年以来，这是ETH/BTC相对走势线第三次出现下跌趋势。确实，当前的下跌持续时间最长，但显然并不是最严重的。从2017年到2019年，! s1 j n" h* ^2 [
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以太坊相对于比特币的表现承受了更多压力，远比2021年以来的情况要糟糕得多。总体而言，有五个相对表现阶段——其中两个阶段是以太坊的表现优于比特币的时期。& r: Z& e$ l r7 h
. g# K- p4 y( r$ i1 W现在的问题是，以太坊是否即将再次重新夺回相对于比特币的主导地位。虽然相对走势线已处于多年低位，但目前并无迹象表明这种转变即将发生。然而，趋势往往会突然并快速逆转。
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7 o* F% Z c( ]# _( s) C如果ETH要在近期内对比特币获得任何优势，它需要利用最近几个月形成的潜在看涨图表形态——一个反转头肩形态。ETH现在接近触发这一形态的关键，图表清楚地表明，以太坊必须突破2,700美元的区域才可能实现突破。" n) N) ^! ]2 i& n
) G9 \8 P" w) P2,700美元的区域既是该形态的“颈线”，也是从5月高点测量的下跌趋势线所在位置。以太坊在2月和8月分别在该区域实现突破和跌破。尽管ETH仍远未接近其历史高点，但利用这一形态可能再次推动积极的动能。突破目标为3,350美元区域，
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7 e" x! D7 z: a, s( U& H% X4 {约比当前水平高出23%，这可能仅仅是个开始。; p9 y' d5 e+ ?9 n/ W; x1 V
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更大的图表形态是周线图上的潜在“杯柄”形态，采用对数刻度显示，跨度达三年。
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% S; s* b8 o/ I n0 u0 T% X# F要实现这一形态需要更多时间（和更大的上涨幅度），最终ETH需要超越2024年3月的高点接近4,100美元。然而，我们以前见过这种情况。之前在2017年和2020年，以太坊经历了两次最大的月度形态突破，每次都推动ETH进一步上涨。9 F; z5 f" h$ v. @. A, Q
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- S- K: V' j/ t6 h. g' z5 v每个周期都有不同之处，但我们已经看到比特币和以太坊几乎利用技术形态已有十年之久。虽然这次的形态需要更长时间来发挥作用，但这并不意味着它们最终不会继续奏效。5 X0 R8 @- v8 n! Z8 _
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