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冷风说币：大饼搭舞台 山寨唱大戏 谁再翻倍？2022.06.25
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市场消息
美国5月新屋销售户数未如市场预期下降，反而环比猛增10.7%，是今年首次月度增长，调查显示，影响美联储本月加息决策的重要因素——6月消费者信心指数显示通胀预期略有下降。
经济数据令市场对美联储的加息预期进一步降温。周五三大美国股指高开高走，同时美联储披露所有大银行都通过年度压力测试，认为银行有强大的资金池抵御衰退，消息一出，银行股强势上扬，道指涨逾820点。
美股高涨之际，市场避险情绪减退，加密货币也再度出现上涨行情：BTC突破2.1万美元，至21556美元高点，日内振幅幅达到5.25%，以太坊最高涨至1163美元，日振幅达到7.42%。市值排名前50当中，也仅USDT、USDC两个稳定币有微弱下跌，其余全部呈现上涨状态。
明显的上涨给市场带来一定信心，24小时加密货币资金流入为152.46亿美元，而流出为113.53亿美元，资金流入表现明显。大多数分析师也据此给出看涨观点，市场暂时具有上涨势头。
从表面看目前行情似乎开始有回暖迹象，但实质上，表面的风平浪静下可能蕴藏更大的危机。因为难以抑制的高通胀仍然困扰着宏观经济，全球对经济衰退的担忧与日俱增，市场情绪指标仍然处于极度恐慌状态，市场波动或许会进一步扩大。
行情分析
BTC短线支撑20500-20800美元，短线压力22000-23000美元。外盘继续走高，大饼震荡反弹，最显著的变化是日线级别的MACD出现水下金叉，柱线翻绿。大家知道macd为趋势指标，它的指向确定性较大，因此大饼震荡向上是大概率事件，重压应该在22000-23000美元，现在大家可以谨慎乐观，操作上以低多为主，高空为辅。
ETH短线支撑1100-1150美元，短线压力1250-1350美元。以太的MACD日线金叉早于大饼，走势强于大饼，预计仍会继续向上反弹，重压应该在1300-1350美元。主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。
山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调，存量资金搏弈，局部式行情，而这局部就是山寨币。 山寨币继续普涨为主，建议大家逢低买入，多一点等待的耐心。大家要关注一点，这次下跌，大饼的市值占比是下降的，说明资金是流向了山寨。山寨铃响马邦来，山寨今天就是好日子。 来源：金色财经 |
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