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[体育菠菜心得方法] 关于欧赔调整后的准确性以及欧赔返还率的精确理论
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首先声明一句,这个欧赔的理论是基于“欧赔历史数据研究”后的成熟产品。
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1、首先来聊聊欧赔的公司,我们知道欧赔的公司成千上万,找到自己需要的才是重要的。就如同亚盘,我们都知道澳门是很小气的公司,他一向不会做亏本的买卖,外加他开盘的都是大联赛,所以一有大变动他比我们还害怕。. q" ^/ w" N# Z% E

' T! H& K6 n5 K4 [至于每个联赛需要看那家的欧赔,则见仁见智。因为之前的“欧赔历史数据”理论是基于不变动的赔率去找到赢面最大的一方进行投注的一个赔率研究。9 g9 I$ f, O1 f* Q7 e% F; k3 n
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也就是说,在旧有的理论中,比如曼联VS曼城,在不变动的欧赔赔率中(比如INT公司),基于INT公司的赔率结果是主胜20平8负2,那么在理论上我们可以投资曼联,因为他的主场不败率高达28.4 k2 Y1 p7 M# D
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但是这个理论有个矛盾,那就是欧赔开出的时间过早以及赔率返还率过低,导致真实的利润自然过低。(并不是说他对胜负的把握不准确)
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2、我们发现了这个地方之后,必须理解返还率。所谓的返还率就是博彩公司返还给彩民的奖金。有个说法,就是说:返还率越高的欧赔公司,对该赛事的把握性越强。这个说法就我个人实验来说,只能说几率是一半一半。如果要几率高,除了历史胜负要注意之外,还要有个前提条件,那就是赔率调整不过于频繁调整的公司才行。例如BWIN这些经常调整的公司,就是五大的返还率高达9*%,也是没用的。你的历史可能只是他调整过程中的一个。
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3 Z4 M" [+ Q7 c$ `! I5 C% H; k而在了解了返还率问题,以及欧赔历史理论的情况下。这个盘口理论知识已经可以在返还率高于90%的欧赔历史理论下有60%的胜率了。但是欧赔是胜平负,也就是说1.4X的主胜赔率你可能在欧赔盈利但是在亚盘的投注中你不能盈利。(这里有个方法就是你可以按照这个理论去串欧赔的比赛,举的例子2011-03-02西甲03:00維拉利爾-靴格拉斯的比赛,亚盘主让一球,欧赔主胜1.44,结果是1:0,欧赔是主胜了,但是亚盘没有盈利可言)" T9 w( H: z  _3 |3 L' j- a/ p
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3、在基于返还率高企+欧赔历史胜率稳定的比赛下,我们要来关注欧赔调整的准确性。我之前说过我很讨厌某些人发帖说的话,例如说欧赔中,某某队伍的主胜平赔率上调,就因此得出不看好主胜平而去投注客胜。而现在来说,这句话在基于返还率来说是非常错误的。因为1.44可能是90%的返还率,而1.40则可能只有88%的返还率。这个调整只能证明博彩公司开出的欧赔是按照90%返还率来投注,并不能看出这个调整就是看好客胜。
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看看,楼主的心得
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看看楼主的心得
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有一定的道理,谢谢分享
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
学习下..............
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谢谢分享。。。
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看看,楼主的心得
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学习了,谢谢楼主分享
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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一篇一篇慢慢观看 新来的 研究各个楼主发布的文章 谢谢分享 辛苦了
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谢谢楼主分享  学习了
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谢谢楼主的分享~~~~~!
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