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[体育菠菜心得方法] 普及Du球理论(六)教你怎么一步步估波胆
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第一步,明确投注的赛事范围。在互联网上,只要有数十家博彩公司对某个联赛开出欧洲赔率,意味着这个联赛受操纵的可能性比较小,对某个联赛开出欧洲赔率的博彩公司越多,证明这个联赛的真实性越高,包括五大联赛,荷甲,葡超,比甲,苏超,美职,日本,挪超,瑞典超,巴西,阿根廷等联赛,这些赛事我们都应该关注。相对联赛而言,各项杯赛不确定的因素实在太多,包括最重要的战意和心态都无法分析,所以我们对待各项杯赛要特别谨慎,尤其是有可能打加时的比赛(因为就博彩而言,90分钟和120分钟是完全不同的概念)。1 u$ p+ T- Q  M9 _) k+ m% b/ C
  第二步,密切关注这些赛事的百家欧洲赔率,前面说过欧洲赔率是一种动态数据,我们彩民所看到的都是时刻调整的赔率(即时赔率),根本没有必要去研究博彩公司的初赔,因为各个博彩公司开出初赔的时间都不同,数值也不同,还有可能某些小型博彩公司干脆照搬其它公司的初赔,在“Du球论之四”中我们有一个最重要的公式:欧洲赔率(初赔)=1/概率*赔付率,由于各个博彩公司设定的赔付率不同,概率又是估算值,概率和赔付率的细小偏差就可以导致各个博彩公司欧洲赔率的明显差别。话又说回来,初赔都是赛前数天甚至十多天开出的,从开出初赔到比赛开始前几分钟,这一段时间内,与比赛相关的因素发生了哪些变化,这些因素都有可能导致博彩公司调整欧洲赔率。
2 a( u( Q2 G0 s; k* R7 c/ }! U  第三步,采用排除法筛选出当晚有可能投注的赛事。百家欧洲赔率整体上不会盲动,欧洲赔率的大幅调整和剧烈动荡都应该有原因。每一场比赛,都要分以下几类筛选:
# H; I7 q# @2 }/ R; U# t  1,遇到非正常赔率的赛事,分析是否默契球;
0 s. o8 Z7 `/ M, U  2,百家欧赔整体平稳时,关注主流联赛中的超级强队主场赛事,分析战意,状态,阵容等;
7 }6 o! I  J% s! K5 O  3,百家欧赔剧烈动荡和大幅调整的赛事都要留下,分析原因。- b. O9 l2 p5 x$ C9 m  s
  第四步,结合客观资料和真实信息,并参考以前的复盘记录,去反复推敲第三步留下的赛事,作出最有把握的选择(每晚投注不应超过五场)。4 v) t1 I3 e( v
  第五步,赛后复盘总结并作记录,这是很重要的工作,会让自己明白胜在何处,败为何因,忽略了什么,避免在下次投注中犯同样的错误,在犯过各种不同的错误之后,你就会成功,因为无错可犯了嘛。复盘记录还有可能给你带来更大的惊喜:令人神往的人情波。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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