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[虚拟币交流]
随着山寨币投机行为加剧,比特币的主导地位跌至 60% 以下(转)
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比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位急剧下滑,跌至59.2%,并跌破多个关键技术水平。此次下跌可能是一个重要的转折点,预示着期待已久的山寨币涨势即将开启。# {8 L* \8 H) E% U6 M
" H W5 k Q1 O' [) O4 o6 m仅在过去的一个月里,由于以太坊和其他山寨币都取得了显著的增长,比特币的市场份额就从 63.9% 下降。/ `1 L0 ]9 @6 D2 U9 o0 Y8 z
) e) S3 V4 Z% [: p5 c2 I0 x我们是如何到达这里的。这次崩盘标志着一场重大市场战的结束。以下是我们对前期的分析. [' s+ I; f t. }
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技术水平面临压力
$ e' f# v' w8 d8 e# i* J7 ODan Gambardello 表示,比特币的主导地位近期跌破了 60% 的心理关口,并跌破了绿色移动平均线的支撑位。目前,它正在测试 59% 附近的蓝色移动平均线。4 B7 f) O( e& m0 y0 c7 {( n# l7 W; q
) [7 G/ X7 s; a U+ I上一次出现这种情况是在2024年11月,当时山寨币曾短暂上涨,随后比特币重新占据主导地位。此次下跌之前,市场经历了数月59%至66%的盘整。持续的跌破可能会促使大量资金转向山寨币。
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5 C5 y/ j5 b) L+ g分析师 AltcoinGordon 进一步指出,比特币的主导地位正在下降,他指出,比特币已经跌破了近 62% 的三年上涨趋势线,这是一个关键的结构性转变。他认为,自 2022 年以来,这一水平一直抑制着山寨币的走势,跌破这一水平可能会引发整个市场更广泛的参与。* E7 y2 \! v A @* [' _: ^
/ _! ~" J* {1 n) N$ i, e* W这又是一次“假动作”吗?
8 Z8 }" ]5 g- v" o. i) A* N1 J谨慎仍需谨慎。分析师 ZYN 指出,尽管历史经验表明,假突破是可能的,但目前的情况表明,比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。
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( t1 T0 i0 j# C, G) h2024 年第四季度,比特币短暂占据主导地位滑落至突破EMA-50水平后迅速反弹。ZYN指出,尽管历史经验表明,假突破是可能的,但目前的情况表明,比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。6 g1 p: l6 s* d6 S) c$ X
, R2 E) F1 g# [他认为,如果周收盘价低于关键的EMA-50移动平均线,可能确认市场将出现更具决定性的走势,并为“超级山寨币季”奠定基础。交易员将密切关注周收盘价,以区分真正的崩盘和又一次错误的开局。. v! L% ]2 j& C2 c
7 d. \& q/ y( h市场份额正在发生变化
! b1 z) I& G7 ]% k, f. p其影响已在数据中显现。以太坊的市场份额已从上个月的 9.7% 上升至今天的 12.9%,增长了超过三个百分点。其他加密货币的市场份额也已上升至 27.9%,这表明山寨币正在被广泛追捧。这种转变不仅是技术层面的,也是心理层面的,因为投资者的兴趣似乎正在超越比特币和以太坊。
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值得注意的是,比特币的主导地位在今年6月底达到峰值65.1%,这使得当前的下跌既迅速又引人注目。如果这种下跌趋势持续下去,可能标志着自2022年以来最重要的主导地位逆转之一,重塑市场领导地位,并可能加速山寨币的增长。/ i8 ` u5 m2 Q( y
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感觉山寨币要热闹起来了,比特币得让个位子了。
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