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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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% j" g$ D9 y, `, V& S6 C; M 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。( V4 g7 `" Z7 _# H" m7 L# M- u
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。3 F o2 A! [) Z. |1 r' |# I( U, I
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6 `2 H: b1 C h8 s. f 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续: ~5 f: ]" B' ]' r9 Q: y% l' L
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。 A. w- E! [8 O% l
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。8 q g- w; u' Y# d; q$ j2 k
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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* V7 f% G+ ?+ U 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。; G& l( u' Q" G& I; g3 `5 h
- ~5 z' d2 ]: R8 s, e 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。/ S% \' C$ I: ~, d
) l$ F% N6 @( g( \5 w8 [- D' ?# G “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间7 Q: ]3 e/ ?8 ^) p
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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- t8 @' y7 x8 ?2 `, R3 a' W 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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. k, M& z( H$ U# f1 y& ^$ J5 \积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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$ N5 h) q% s, V* t 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。) n2 h0 p9 o5 I4 |5 N( v
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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2 H# z, [- r* t! z 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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X! {. q/ `7 }9 F( @2 `7 H: v 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。) |. O9 Z" Q" ~% q A
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。0 l) T' j) S$ f6 M
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，8 ]' F! F" [8 D
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”5 I% ^% {* `/ z' K, H9 V
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