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小分3种情况:, z y7 u1 p/ h! ~ d
: ?) p$ [- s8 {4 \% i8 l$ H, i
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
/ q5 }" m2 r! P/ u6 k
/ _0 @; j% `: }( F* W, d: J2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。6 V: u; Y& j! }% k$ ?
1 J5 G3 z X P+ _
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。2 R S7 l4 [# F7 @& I4 E' A2 A, {) ~
a. _9 }2 Z- D6 V# H ]5 [( I2张牌8或9点的情况有:. v! Y" i3 a+ J- k( E& K/ |3 @
8 g( L& o* |6 O6 f0 N! [; e& n1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10+ {! r, n f m7 W2 m& K
& T' X( h! o6 M: w( W# b! K1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
; \( o0 e; B4 k9 J6 V9 K3 X/ i" ^, r, G, o) ]) N `+ ~2 o
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
' X- Q a. r. v( H8 d0 Q* N6 Q3 T( r( z
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 c! q; F9 r* u/ E
: d' B7 \& o7 U& x& o, c: w
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
- h* _8 l3 c( _: Q8 W, S/ E% \* N
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。/ [/ x4 H7 V' Y6 \: m" T
6 ?5 U! D2 {) J2 o; B那么我们可以得出
) M3 O' P+ }/ @; T6 t2 E3 O$ l9 R X; u- t2 E2 s2 z) g
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346622 Y! I* a# b1 e; F3 K" H# d$ Z: }4 J
. G' r* O4 b3 f
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 ) s1 r; I, k4 g8 E. q E
$ ^& ~( K, r+ g; q+ x) v3 |& d$ j3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
- F$ m0 _- @/ ]) ~9 i
% U8 c/ x/ Z9 b4 H所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323$ E) S, n2 v4 f& N. `
2 s( m7 a7 {; _9 k0 X百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677' }1 d4 K2 Z" \7 r
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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