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[lastpost] => 2769555 喊一喊就涨?川普次子抄底记录大起底 1759122783 AOU1888
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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: E% J: h+ b) V {' s3 s过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。. s+ R( R$ R/ X5 D9 r6 C: Z
, s: T/ |! B, s* j" n2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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/ |8 S& E+ `$ ]5 a当前持仓成本:
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, L+ G9 @& [" b* y3 E$ \机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;& @! ~$ b1 u8 ~( L
6 E% f. L0 ]& {( ?微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;! y% D. p0 N- O7 {
7 w* c, f: I: |/ @% c5 R9 ~ XETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。$ }, r4 A' z7 y! t9 ]' O
9 R( c; H8 C% s1 L2 \3 O比特币价值回归:
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& U2 s: X/ m2 M1 Q2 \市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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: l* I7 L$ X/ f# @$ g9 ]: z7 \/ \随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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# c) H6 P! W2 j9 r! Z加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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) ^9 l5 A9 D( g" p* N& C3. 市场热点与反弹情况. b u8 g! J2 f3 ]+ v0 y
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/ z9 m% y! }4 l+ n虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。% l, U7 k: A# X5 N1 w
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。6 R4 O( h2 j4 H; y& w9 j6 g% G
$ N) s& @ F/ x. \& O' P( \BTC:
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" x( S8 B/ K8 }8 X9 Z; H3 A尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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2 z5 w1 s0 Y- E如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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- R8 p4 Q7 c) w7 WSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。9 l9 x& F6 K3 n4 s; @$ Z3 |) B
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:$ ?' O9 z4 f# X! X4 z
7 O0 k" z5 E$ D/ i- r: U' s涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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" r: Q8 d- ~: c7 h山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。/ u6 `# q- p4 E1 T0 t! i
3 q; a: }5 y4 Z4. AI赛道与新兴项目2 X8 s! |: C. N' z. n' w; G6 x
_- c/ y' {* M# }' w! W9 H/ ^AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。. q2 z. I1 q7 [
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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& F" w" s! H D. }) c, A9 M; s8 {新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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: g0 q# j6 z3 L3 k) w0 e; q随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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