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在美国现货比特币 ETF 推出一周年之际，彭博情报的 James Seyffart 告诉我，即使是这些产品背后，更看好这些产品的公司也对这些产品的反响感到惊讶。7 v6 W7 S8 M/ ~& n7 z( r
4 H$ @% R4 D3 k' L! _ x富达投资的数字资产策略师主管 Matt Horne 向我证实了这一点。' H; {9 ^; R: @2 i+ t" @( C) \
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他提到，散户投资者、顾问和机构对比特币的需求超过了该公司的“乐观”预期。富达 Wise Origin 比特币基金 (FBTC) 的净流入量为 122 亿美元，仅次于贝莱德的 iShares 比特币信托基金 (IBIT)（377 亿美元）。
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但比特币 ETF 市场是否会迎来第二个低迷期？ [$ [- T& ]0 x% _
6 T7 P g* q: d7 c3 G& E) N6 cHorne 解释说，富达迄今已与所有客户群体就 2025 年比特币 ETF 使用率上升进行了“富有成效的对话”。
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/ Q t! @; ^, H: r h他还谈到了这项已有 16 年历史的资产：“更长的历史将使我们能够继续进行投资组合研究，并更好地了解投资者的风险承受能力和比特币在投资组合中的作用。”% a- `7 ?6 G5 u4 K
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Horne 提到了各种客户类型的“采用范围”。相关消息是，Bitwise 首席执行官亨特·霍斯利 (Hunter Horsley) 周五在 X 空间上表示——使用了杰弗里·摩尔 (Geoffrey Moore) 的“跨越鸿沟”中的术语——我们正在走出早期采用者阶段，进入“早期大众”。7 t1 P0 u! j7 w' \) [$ ^1 q1 k
i. J- c/ i7 a& P$ d然后，借用温斯顿·丘吉尔 (Winston Churchill) 的话来描述比特币 ETF 的采用，霍斯利补充说，感觉我们正处于“开始的结束”。他指出，探索比特币作为机遇仍然是 30 万亿美元美国财富管理行业各公司的“待办事项清单”。/ p: C! F, G+ T. Z+ G+ r
- U) I/ x4 X0 }+ a) f, g/ \但正如 Zacks Investment Research 的 Neena Mishra 周五告诉我的那样，2025 年 BTC ETF 的流入量能否赶上/超过去年，很可能取决于市场表现。, Z: R% ~& V. h( b. O: |
2 z5 |9 r3 A& a/ y- R在前面提到的 BTC 价格暴跌中，美国比特币基金周三和周五分别遭遇 5.69 亿美元和 1.49 亿美元的流出（周四市场因纪念吉米·卡特而休市）。# R, h! P! i) G8 d- A7 U
3 V9 P5 }! ?8 b5 KCasey 提出了美国可能的战略比特币储备——Seyffart 表示这将推动 ETF 需求。但如果特朗普和支持加密货币的国会未能履行与加密货币相关的承诺，BTC 可能会回调（和流出）。) `- t: f* |4 \- C
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“尽管随着更多传统投资者使用这些 ETF，它们可能会成为比特币价格的支撑，因为他们通过购买更多来重新平衡下行趋势，”Seyffart 说。 “相反，随着长期内他们重新平衡至目标配置水平，他们也可能会在上升趋势中成为卖家。”
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