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[lastpost] => 2769768 韩国最大交易平台Upbit将被Naver收购,加密市场进入「财阀时代」?(转) 1759146112 rainwang
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势1 x9 P/ ], S# f3 ?
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。2 X. O Y* [+ @
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。 ]9 S5 [% N# S; U/ G
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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. e4 i) H/ d5 b+ q2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:# ^ L: ?! N$ @+ M s/ E2 {) ]( j5 ^
# k3 o' s* {# t- ?3 e/ c% D/ A机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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8 L, k2 h ]1 O0 l0 j2 j微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;. [3 H; z$ H' H$ b
- r0 I2 K* f! J% k! c+ t) OETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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: A% |. j7 v; d! ~3 s比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。. N5 h$ e0 ?7 s6 g) ]
' M1 w8 C6 y& n9 F; _& z6 }随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。. W7 a. L- B1 w1 E$ T
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。 G" }) j6 r# ~" W; S" X7 ]9 H
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。; R: ?9 A( P E
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。8 H* Q$ I$ N/ }, b) Y/ w4 s
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& X' R/ N7 ^" I, R" M9 u5 ^尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。) I% h3 A$ E Y9 S
" f% k$ r" p$ c+ y% `$ v& N如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。+ X! C% Q& r0 K6 w2 P
$ T. l; X# {) c6 W) H% l其他热点项目:0 P& ^; g6 u8 M0 |
7 J s7 l9 d+ q7 o( s3 b( M涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。' y( |; _, L4 ^3 d9 u, C
1 Q# Z# K$ H @% g) I山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。. c: L; L1 |6 r( m3 b6 e
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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- S3 h4 v% @. |+ R' } BAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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( n6 Y1 k. ~5 ~% I4 T% y蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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8 y# I8 W5 q& O- `- N市场展望 }! ^) J" ^ }: [ t
2 v/ r' g3 l0 V+ \随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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