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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。- z+ G* S3 o ]3 @
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Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”1 A/ f, C a* s% L! Z3 S+ E
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Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普# F% f6 N# k; b" w9 r5 r8 o
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。# b8 @5 V7 U$ A
' V4 i) S7 r, Q/ @Park 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施; q/ ?4 O" ?4 r- ^! ~5 }
) Y; r- J) m3 H/ z的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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4 U8 v7 Z& \. K% [5 p美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。8 y1 Z* V4 t/ D! ]
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. ?5 `$ ^- k" X; IBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”3 U/ s, {% {: P
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“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率8 y4 D B r- a- J& [" T
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。
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' d. u V! w& G8 L9 E: Z' Q$ M根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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6 i! O; U: G% I& O/ @. }# N0 L据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。1 p( d# }9 C% ^$ B3 A8 x
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今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于+ Z; W, D5 \5 A# O- Q
4 L) i5 V( H' e+ T- Q- W1 R! \; p$ n上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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