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[lastpost] => 2818389 比特币也还是涨了两天时间了啊 1774941736 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎( Q3 g/ P' T r6 @1 g: ]
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？" M' X- h; y% D0 H% F; t
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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" b5 o* H; u2 o# z9 h/ f! [然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。' p! @3 o! o6 l9 M+ [, W8 N
, c, k. m" A. k6 c/ ?; h: }这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?
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随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌) A) }3 [: |5 I: C' D
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。+ T$ [: T8 [% O# G
( F3 s7 I' Q6 ~) ^2 K' g- w7 M在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。% F' K- C' a7 {
9 `/ Y7 ]4 @% ^有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。) l1 B1 I" T w1 e `/ O
) Z: B; }3 w$ y* Z) C+ v& }三年后，形势发生了逆转。
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- }, Z; t) Y* Z E' D这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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: P2 e+ c9 d5 ~+ L+ t0 k发生了什么变化？机构资本.
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+ Q# C3 ~; F/ W. _大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。. K. y# ^7 f+ E& a8 R. q2 Z8 [4 [
% b0 B! D6 ^4 I; W+ e/ P零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。1 e( S0 C# s2 n2 A W
, t# l9 b; I% U/ f4 u因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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+ i0 y% N/ ~) U! Z# G山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上, Q5 q! [* L/ I0 M0 _: H
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。: ?2 T8 {0 ?$ u4 @
* r3 Y5 J9 _: W这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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XRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。
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在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。4 _* H" ?0 y; g- Y9 }
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