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[虚拟币交流]
XRP牛市起点？监管胜利是否足以引爆300%涨幅？（转）
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XRP目前稳固运行在2美元上方，目前交易价格约为2.13美元，自2024年11月反弹前低点以来，涨幅已超过300%。然而，市场正显现出整理迹象。在2.15美元阻力位附近出现了一个看跌吞没形态，同时还有下降趋势线，表明卖压正在增强。50周期指数移动平均线（EMA）同样位于2.15美元附近，进一步强化了该价位作为技术阻力的意义。 Glassnode数据显示，日均获利了结金额达到6880万美元，早期投资者开始获利回吐。MACD动能正在减弱，RSI略低于中性水平，如果买方未能及时介入，价格可能进入横盘或回调阶段。 关键技术要点： - 阻力位：2.15美元（趋势线 + 50周期EMA）
- 支撑位：2.086美元 和 2.035美元
- 看跌K线形态发出警示信号
- MACD动能跌破信号线，呈现疲软态势
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, F W( m+ |& I) { {ETF获批提振机构信心，XRP基本面获强力支撑尽管短期技术面偏弱，但XRP的长期基本面正在持续向好，得益于机构资金加持与监管突破。 加拿大资管公司3iQ正式在多伦多证券交易所（TSX）上线XRPQ现货ETF，通过合规产品为投资者提供XRP敞口。与此同时，Purpose Investments也推出了自家的XRP ETF，进一步标志着传统金融机构正在加速布局XRP赛道。 在美国，SEC（证券交易委员会）已对富兰克林邓普顿（Franklin Templeton）提交的ETF申请开启评论期，其中包括与XRP和Solana相关的ETF产品，拟于Cboe BZX交易所挂牌交易。若最终通过，这将为更多合规资金打开入场通道，或将为XRP后续上涨提供新一轮动力。 随着监管逐步明朗化，市场分析师普遍认为，ETF资金流入有望取代情绪炒作，推动真正的机构买盘进场。
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7 R% [( o5 u5 [XRP后市走势如何演绎？自去年11月低点以来，XRP的这一轮上涨可谓爆发性拉升，但目前正面临关键技术关口的考验。若能放量突破2.15美元阻力位，将有望扭转当前偏空结构，进一步打开上行空间，上看2.34美元，甚至冲击2.65美元区域。 6 w5 f l9 `8 d6 v
相反，若未能守住2.086美元支撑，则可能引发更深层次的回调行情，下方或将测试2.00美元整数关口的心理支撑，甚至有进一步回落风险。 交易设置（维持看空倾向，除非被突破） - 做空入场：2.13–2.14美元，价格在该区间受阻时介入
- 止损位置：2.16美元上方
- 目标位：2.086美元 和 2.035美元
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后续走势将取决于ETF动能和监管明确性能否抵消当前日益增长的获利回吐压力。如果这些利多因素能够维持，XRP的价格预测可能将重新走回多头路线。但就目前而言，价格接近阻力位，仍需保持谨慎。 : B5 n/ G- A# q5 s
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