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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资比特币月度报告：5个指标分析BTC呈现看涨趋势（转载）
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木头姐Cathie Wood旗下的方舟投资(Ark Invest)，近期发布比特币7月的分析报告指
$ r% [8 {4 p- R" ?出，从比特币支撑及阻力方面来看，币价「呈现看涨」趋势。6 S; o2 \+ H4 q- e5 }% g
比特币在短期持有者成本基础(28328美元)和200周均线(26623美元)处仍有支撑，而在已实现价格处，则可能面
5 O4 y0 f6 G8 w9 c3 ]- J8 I" g临阻力，即33949美元。) a. w9 D% B: T4 U& n2 Y
已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被+ @0 Z9 e& Q8 k4 P* p" K6 \
购买时的「平均成本」。9 y+ W, [3 `' |: J2 u( b5 x
同时比特币已实现波动性(90天)出现自2017年以来未见的低水平，降至36%，基于此低波动性，方舟投资认为比
$ v" T8 K9 [3 U7 _/ H* b特币价格可能会在未来几个月内朝某个方向大幅波动。
8 N. n2 x% N$ N, c9 ]" m; |在矿工活动方面，则呈现看涨迹象，比特币算力的30日移动平均线跌破了60日移动平均线，表明矿工活动已经减* @6 H7 n. }4 o; ~
少，这对矿工付出成本的降低有帮助" w- G4 _& A) u( [6 U" V
比特币网络活跃度方面，可衡量当前持有行为的潜在抛售压力，此一指标也呈现看涨，而7月活跃度降至60%以
& b: E0 [, f5 q下，表现出自2020年第4季以来最强劲的长期持有行为。- O2 L4 O2 v; m* |
比特币短期持有者盈亏比方面，同样呈现看涨，盈亏比在本月接近1，表示投机者处于盈亏平衡的水平，在牛市环
+ ^4 r" p/ j; l8 Q2 u2 L/ c9 L境中，这通常与短期修正后的看涨反转相关。8 R" p; q( N3 C- F( E2 |
最后值得注意的是，方舟提醒，由于货币政策的运作有长达12至18个月的长期且可变的滞后性，联准会先前利率
' ~( y, ?( v1 B! L+ @9 h0 H% ]升息22倍的全面影响尚未显现，而这趋向于看跌，住房、制造业等对利率敏感的产业也已率先陷入衰退，其余经! S; B- s4 w& f
济领域可能是下一个。6 S+ G* B0 d* O6 V; l2 Z
& ^2 l3 y# j- c) n# B
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