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[lastpost] => 2774980 艾略特波浪专家：牛市结束，比特币价格可能跌至 7 万美元或更低（转） 1761717374 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
灰度GBTC年今年涨幅破226%！超越英伟达（26日转）
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灰度将旗下GBTC基金转换为比特币现货ETF的申请露出曙光，灰度在8月底迎来法律战胜
# ]' d' d$ v# H7 q2 c2 P利，法院要求SEC应重新审查先前拒绝灰度申请的决定，随后SEC未做出任何上诉举措，法院在本周稍早正式对此
% G6 ~' s5 z- e! w1 g* x6 W0 Q案做出裁决，要求SEC重审该申请。
* A9 d. H t6 G" c8 ~1 w. w随着灰度胜诉，据Coinglass数据显示，目前GBTC的负溢价率已从去年12月最深的-48.89%，大幅缩减至当前: |9 x* T9 k Y9 z
的-13.12%，而在比特币近期大幅上涨之际，GBTC价格也显著上扬，最近5日涨幅超过20%。
3 s# E+ @' f; [ Y据TradingView数据显示，今年迄今为止，GBTC价格已飙升226.71%至26.79美元，相较之下，标普500指数上涨: R* S! g/ a& Y" \) y& I8 o
9%，标普500指数中表现最佳股票英伟达上涨191.96%，比特币上涨106.87%，均不如GBTC涨幅。
2 N5 C+ V& j% l7 Y% E) X值得注意的是，「女股神」伍德(Cathie Wood)的方舟投资(ARK Invest)在今年一月卖光英伟达股票，错失了今年
9 t# U+ ^" J3 o# x4 V以来的涨幅，但方舟投资在去年11月至12月间大举增持GBTC股票，获得了巨额回报。
0 V2 J7 {! s' \) R- u F R G在去年11月GBTC价格跌至7.46-9.48美元区间低点之际，ARKW大买了450,272股GBTC，随着GBTC价格回升，$ C, E! W. X: m9 v* U% S
在此期间，ARKW开始逐步获利了结，其GBTC持仓从去年12月高峰的659.7万股，减持至目前的488.9万股。
g+ Z4 W; |9 I9 E8 C: bGBTC转换申请获批将助涨比特币？
7 `2 E2 a+ m5 V& gCoindesk报导，交易员在购买GBTC股票的同时，会通过同时在现货/期货市场卖出比特币，来对冲下行风险，一5 ? o# @% \4 j" N8 B9 B5 K
旦转换灰度的申请得到批准，做市商会将GBTC价格恢复至净资产价值(NAV)。
7 S% y- c! y0 r3 Y" W5 w0 C+ [旨在从GBTC负溢价缩窄中获利的双腿策略(bi-leggedstrategy)，可能已限制今年稍早比特币的涨幅，随着SEC批" b. V" t# G2 Y
准的可能性增加，负溢价幅度迅速缩小，交易员可能会放弃此策略，包括利用期货做空比特币的部分，从而使比
0 `- h7 I* s s% y. |特币更加看涨。
! C" ?' k T& [; P' k) rTwo Prime Digital Assets管理合伙人Alexander S.Blume表示：由于GBTC ETF转换的批准看似越来越可能，投% ^ v" B a; x, P: Z
资者知道，做市商会在交易开放时，就将价格恢复至NAV，随着此投资工具恢复至NAV，做空比特币的压力似乎/ }- H# n& b) f) B* Q
会减小，并支撑比特币现货价格的上行压力。
$ `1 H- D. P1 @+ m; i8 r' b+ h( Y& m, ?7 E0 X6 S+ G6 Z
9 X& B% a O6 ], `( C' B' g. L |
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炒作对了方向，哪怕是跌也是有钱可赚的，这才是重要的 |
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