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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
! ]$ h! J1 J, Y5 I0 a9 }* l$ s
/ ?( a) [3 T2 n2 ^0 r* L认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，& }% f1 O6 @( D# a
% d1 \! L* J: {$ d* G0 _
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
; j: [1 _" X* ?9 c; f
9 E4 x! L( z9 G8 ]) i的千禧一代。7 z G' b/ O! P' S; W. _
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
3 A6 A, w. u9 S( J6 l7 S5 |% G% X* ?% A% o+ w/ _
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“- Q* @1 z" o: n `, S
! X( v: T3 h' I' A' Q
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据2 M1 C4 W( i0 x! X0 V0 f- n
- H. q% {: ]/ ?" M《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
2 r% V6 z! y8 O, I# h" |
, P6 h1 T* r% U& j的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》. X9 z t$ e7 ?) @: X8 [. W6 L
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报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
P" ]1 a" N: w- L- `5 w
2 h0 E) F% `' V. ^! s10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
! w* a. B* l4 P e2 ~+ l9 S. Z& r& \& W9 x, j. S5 f! e- Y
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。. P: U# Y M& C' e
- B5 Y- `6 S( u" [1 x& V) h
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降9 B# Y% P2 e7 v
! c( Y' a) d/ Y9 g
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
. L M: v! m/ e2 c
* ^3 L9 f4 j7 q3 h$ u; X$ O与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
1 @5 }% S7 B" I2 B- O: |& o% `* f$ i5 S+ y6 s
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富5 O. ?% D) |+ I' j' e6 P2 n
" n" q8 I. u& w& }" q0 E
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不+ R2 e5 _+ z& M, e/ p( C
0 \4 [! |" [* Z2 b
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
& a' }: G& u# o- e4 l
# W& p! V( j- x. M代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
% h* z' G) I/ w' _
T6 ~: c c! e3 {- n本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体( e2 C# C ^% q/ q
" F, J/ h7 T7 _系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货8 ^" [/ t; S/ {5 A5 m
0 S7 n# ?& S( @8 y; o) K币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
! v1 C4 A1 F% _0 ~" p @. A& p/ f* Y C3 P
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
0 Q6 [1 [2 C/ p6 u9 h H4 q6 L$ n0 [
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。9 p5 {* E# b# S# {8 D: Y0 z
# ]7 ~3 N& m' N+ U( c# h/ f& y5 u l- J3 P* i1 b. s% y) v/ \
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