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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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: B8 u1 q! _( Z1 p' l6 X" O认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，8 X5 J2 Q5 I% x- \: |
: x0 E$ X5 G5 t而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
8 U+ b% a! N. h3 ^7 b; z6 ~6 A, c- s+ X
的千禧一代。
3 ~* n. K9 i M从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB" q4 D5 H) c9 a
4 o- _, d- S% K: Q+ l的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
' {! p! a- n* I3 T+ U1 q1 F. q# B( i8 U" H/ }; e: K5 m
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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8 b9 w% q2 j, z1 M0 R密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
9 T9 L1 { w0 I5 Z3 Z2 {. {0 _& W! Q& }4 L- |4 N& @7 i
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成- N6 L/ F' \6 \2 @# c7 i. ~& H
3 F% E# `+ A: n$ _% C0 ~& C的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
3 L6 F8 ~& w/ z' f, u) a5 W! ]. `! |5 ^! j/ g6 }
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
: U! c# c; A% }$ i/ [6 D5 C5 |3 e* @2 S7 E) v* a1 X: u
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为% Y" B" G& l8 V( A6 I
2 @& N1 R. Q+ `+ K
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。! I. h0 S6 {8 q% V9 g- s% W$ r! h
# M- ?* A( H' I, T9 m8 S0 V
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降9 n- e+ v/ f! v: \
- n7 J! s! x! e7 S6 }
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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* t: v5 |8 h: t1 y与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
$ l! v# P6 M1 o, w1 p5 d6 m
3 g- ^. a: B+ V+ H% g) R世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富- m. B% ? G8 c
6 C+ ~, ^: x, R3 q# s传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
+ `$ J4 \: K$ l" c/ r0 j& W$ U, @+ G7 F/ b) K! W
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
( _6 M2 Z8 i- f2 U
" L" I' C0 W: s6 q代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成4 o7 m9 ^% H* k6 a+ T5 q$ j
; k4 s1 m* s3 }* o. S. h本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体% A5 F Z8 Q* [9 R4 c
) S1 B. b" s1 \( v) Z1 W
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
8 c5 ]& ]2 j) w! g& Q; D3 _ M& I9 a+ j6 l4 R
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致: r4 f9 l) f( p& z+ Q$ Q
# F$ C- C0 V H7 ^$ h9 b! C, W7 W
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富. C4 E# G9 U+ R3 M/ o& @
% z' ~: i' W0 `0 ~3 E3 w, g
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。' `7 y3 \) ?! }) o; F; K
* K d+ y. G1 x* Q
$ [9 {* U( J7 j0 V" O
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